Match Info

SPAIN: Primera RFEF - Group 2 - Round 18

Date: 22 December 2024, Sunday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Where to Watch on TV:


Spain	FEF TV


	Ceuta		Real Madrid Castilla

	1	X	2
	1.8	3	4.75
	1.75	3.25	4.1
	1.95	3.05	4.1
	1.79	3.5	4.26
	1.8	3.29	4.39
	1.77	3.22	4.82
	1.95	3.05	4.1
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.83 ↓ (2.31)	3.19 ↑ (2.88)	4.36 ↑ (3.13)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
50.2%

Draw
28.8%

Real Madrid Castilla
21.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.4%

31.6%

29.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39%

31.9%

29.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ceuta's performance.

Real Madrid Castilla has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Real Madrid Castilla might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-11.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ceuta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Real Madrid Castilla than the current prediction. (+8.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Real Madrid Castilla could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Ceuta - Real Madrid Castilla Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Lopez P. (G) 7. Ahmed A. 6. Hernandez C. 25. Cantero Y. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 5. Bellotti M. 10. Rodriguez C. 21. Lopez J. 12. Herranz Corral V. 20. Escudero A. 9. Rodri	13. Fran (G) 22. Jimenez D. 29. Rivas M. 28. Ribes K. 23. Yusi 16. Antonio David 6. Andres C. 9. Munoz V. 27. Fortuny P. 17. Ruiz D. 7. Garcia G.
Substitutes
22. Aguero 28. Aniekan B. 14. Blesa Alex 4. Caparros A. 2. Delgado F. 18. El Ftouhi S. 15. Guzman J. 3. Lolo Gonzalez 8. Ramos D. 13. Vallejo G. (G)	26. De Llanos H. 39. Lorenzo 8. Moran M. A. 1. Pineiro del Alamo D. (G) 4. Pujol E. 37. Valdepenas V. 36. Yanez D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 1)
61', 1 - 0, Rodri ⚽,
66', Fortuny P. ↓, De Llanos H. ↑,
66', Ruiz D. ↓, Lorenzo ↑,
67', Herranz Corral V. 🟨,
70', 1 - 1, Garcia G. ⚽,
74', Rodriguez C. ↓, Aguero ↑,
74', Lopez J. ↓, El Ftouhi S. ↑,
76', Garcia G. 🟨,
77', 2 - 1, El Ftouhi S. ⚽,
79', Andres C. ↓, Pujol E. ↑,
82', Escudero A. ↓, Delgado F. ↑,
83', Jimenez D. ↓, Moran M. A. ↑,
83', Ribes K. ↓, Yanez D. ↑,
88', Bellotti M. ↓, Blesa Alex ↑,
88', Ahmed A. ↓, Aniekan B. ↑,

Preview

This match a meeting between a mid-table team and the outsider will be held (ranked 11 and 16 in the zone Relegation).

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Ceuta could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Ceuta is a favorite.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Ceuta won 2 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 8:3 (average 2:0.8).

Including matches at home between the teams Ceuta won 1 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 4:2 (average 2:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
13.12.24	Antequera - Ceuta	2:2 ✺
08.12.24	Ceuta - Ibiza	3:1 ✺
Spanish Copa del Rey
05.12.24	Ceuta - Osasuna	2:3 ✺
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
01.12.24	Ceuta - Villarreal B	1:1 ✺
24.11.24	Alcoyano - Ceuta	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.3 TWLTT
- Real Madrid Castilla
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
15.12.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Recreativo Huelva	2:1 ✺
06.12.24	Real Murcia - Real Madrid Castilla	3:1 ✺
30.11.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Mérida AD	6:0 ✺
24.11.24	Fuenlabrada - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2 ✺
17.11.24	Real Madrid Castilla - Antequera	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
04.02.24	Ceuta - Real Madrid Castilla	2:0
29.10.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Ceuta	1:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 1
07.05.23	Real Madrid Castilla - Ceuta	0:3
15.01.23	Ceuta - Real Madrid Castilla	2:2

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