Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 40

Date: 16 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Referee: de Ena Wolf A. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


Argentina	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 7, TOD
Chile	DirecTV Sports
Ecuador	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
North-central-america	DirecTV Sports Caribbean, Sky Sports Norte
Peru	DirecTV Sports
South-america	DGO Latin America
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Uruguay	DirecTV Sports, DSports 6
Venezuela	DirecTV Sports, Inter


	Ceuta		Málaga

	1	X	2
	4.1	4	1.71	Watch
	4.05	3.8	1.75	Watch
	4.25	4.12	1.81
	4.17	3.99	1.78	Watch
	4	3.8	1.75
	4.27	4.09	1.78	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.14 ↑ (2.89)	3.97 ↑ (3.57)	1.76 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Ceuta
22.8%

Draw
23.8%

Málaga
53.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.6%

26.4%

41%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.9%

27%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ceuta's form might have worsened.

Málaga has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Málaga's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (+9.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ceuta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Málaga than the current prediction. (-11.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Málaga, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	8.3%	66.7%

Ceuta - Málaga Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Ceuta will win (votes: 3 - 25%). Málaga will win (votes: 8 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Málaga: 40% – 93.4%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Vallejo G. (G) 23. Anuar 6. Hernandez C. (C) 14. Bodiger Y. 15. Gonzalez D. 5. Youness 12. Illescas M. 19. Jamelli 8. Zalazar K. 18. de la Fuente K. 9. Fernandez Sanchez M.	1. Herrero A. (C) 3. Puga C. 36. Recio A. 4. Galilea E. 31. Rafita 37. Rodriguez R. 23. Merino I. 10. Larrubia D. 22. Lorenzo D. 11. Munoz J. 9. Chupe
Substitutes
17. Almenara G. 26. Bassinga A. 34. Betancourt A. 24. Cantero Y. 4. Caparros A. 30. Josema 1. Lopez P. (G) 37. Rueda A. 2. Sanchez M. 11. Schor I.	7. Abaida H. 26. Arriaza P. 5. Brasanac D. 6. Enriquez R. 2. Gabilondo J. 14. Garcia V. 17. Jauregi E. 24. Lobete J. 13. Lopez C. (G) 20. Montero J. 21. Nino A. 35. Ochoa A.
Coaches
Romero J.	Funes J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
5', 0 - 1, Munoz J. ⚽, Chupe (A),
13', 0 - 2, Chupe ⚽, Rodriguez R. (A),
34', Illescas M. 🟨,
43', 0 - 3, Chupe ⚽, Rodriguez R. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Lorenzo D. ↓, Enriquez R. ↑,
46', Youness ↓, Bassinga A. ↑,
46', de la Fuente K. ↓, Cantero Y. ↑,
46', Youness ↓, Schor I. ↑,
48', Schor I. 🟨,
52', 1 - 3, Galilea E. (Own goal),
63', Recio A. ↓, Montero J. ↑,
63', Rodriguez R. ↓, Ochoa A. ↑,
64', Ochoa A. 🟨,
72', Munoz J. ↓, Lobete J. ↑,
77', Fernandez Sanchez M. 🟨,
77', Bodiger Y. 🟨,
77', Zalazar K. ↓, Betancourt A. ↑,
80', Larrubia D. ↓, Brasanac D. ↑,
82', 1 - 4, Ochoa A. ⚽,
84', Brasanac D. 🟨,
85', Illescas M. ↓, Josema ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

In this match, Málaga is considered a favorite.

There will not play in Ceuta: Ahmed A. (Yellow Cards) Domenech M. (Injury) Kone K. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Málaga: Dorrio J. (Muscle Injury) Dotor C. (Red Card) Juanpe (Injury) Luismi (Face Injury) Murillo D. (Yellow Cards) Pastor A. (Knee Injury) Sanchez D. (Injury)

There are questionable in Ceuta: Redruello Nimo C. (Injury)

There are questionable in Málaga: Lorenzo D. (Knee Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ceuta won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 5:5. (average 1.7:1.7).

Including home match between the teams, Ceuta won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
21	Ceuta	9	1	2	6	8:20	-12	5

Last Results with these Odds

Málaga - the odds 2.3 are the expected chance of winning is 41.02%, but this team recently wins 29% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish LaLiga2
09.05.26	Ceuta - Castellón	1:1 ✺
03.05.26	Sporting de Gijón - Ceuta	1:2 ✺
26.04.26	Ceuta - Racing Santander	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Zaragoza - Ceuta	2:2 ✺
10.04.26	Ceuta - Real Sociedad B	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 20.3 TWTTT
- Málaga CF
Spanish LaLiga2
09.05.26	Málaga - Sporting de Gijón	2:1 ✺
02.05.26	Eibar - Málaga	2:4 ✺
25.04.26	Málaga - Castellón	2:3 ✺
19.04.26	Almería - Málaga	3:2 ✺
11.04.26	Málaga - Las Palmas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14.2 WWLLW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
11.01.26	Málaga - Ceuta	2:1
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
07.04.24	Málaga - Ceuta	1:1
14.01.24	Ceuta - Málaga	3:2

Upcoming Matches