Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 39

Date: 9 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Referee: Palencia D. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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Brazil	Disney+
Chile	Disney+
Colombia	Disney+
Mexico	Izzi TV, Sky Sport
North-central-america	Sky Sports Norte
Peru	Disney+
Spain	DAZN Espana, LaLiga Hypermotion
Uruguay	Disney+
Venezuela	Disney+


	Ceuta		Castellón

	1	X	2
	4.75	4.5	1.56	Watch
	4.65	4.25	1.58	Watch
	5.23	4.56	1.61
	5	4.52	1.58	Watch
	4.8	4	1.6
	4.94	4.53	1.62	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.9 ↑ (3.72)	4.39 ↑ (3.77)	1.59 ↓ (1.89)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.2%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
19.3%

Draw
21.5%

Castellón
59.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.3%

24.9%

49.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25%

24.6%

50.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Ceuta's form might have worsened.

Castellón has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Castellón's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (+5.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Ceuta, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Castellón than the current prediction. (-8.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Castellón, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
25%	0%	75%

Ceuta - Castellón Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Ceuta will win (votes: 1 - 25%). Castellón will win (votes: 3 - 75%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Castellón (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - Castellón (1.84) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Castellón (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Vallejo G. (G) 7. Ahmed A. 6. Hernandez C. (C) 14. Bodiger Y. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 12. Illescas M. 5. Youness 19. Jamelli 8. Zalazar K. 9. Fernandez Sanchez M. 18. de la Fuente K.	13. Matthys R. (G) 22. Mellot J. 3. Brignani F. 5. Jimenez A. (C) 12. Alcazar L. 18. Santiago P. 15. Gerenabarrena B. 25. Ronaldo 16. Cipenga B. 21. Calatrava A. 19. Jakobsen A.
Substitutes
17. Almenara G. 23. Anuar 34. Betancourt A. 20. Campana J. 24. Cantero Y. 4. Caparros A. 15. Gonzalez D. 30. Josema 1. Lopez P. (G) 3. Matos Jose 25. Sanchez S. 11. Schor I.	1. Abedzadeh A. (G) 11. Aurelio D. 8. Barri 9. Camara O. 6. Doue M. 23. Garcia A. 7. Mabil A. 17. Ruiz S. 14. Sanchez R. 4. Sienra A. 10. Suero I. 2. Tincho
Coaches
Romero J.	Hernandez P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
8', Youness 🟨,
27', Redruello Nimo C. ↓, Gonzalez D. ↑,
35', Romero J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
48', Ahmed A. 🟨,
52', 0 - 1, Brignani F. ⚽, Ronaldo (A),
56', Santiago P. ↓, Mabil A. ↑,
64', Jimenez A. 🟨,
64', Jamelli 🟨,
66', Jakobsen A. ↓, Camara O. ↑,
67', Ronaldo ↓, Barri ↑,
73', Jamelli ↓, Campana J. ↑,
73', Ahmed A. ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
73', Youness ↓, Anuar ↑,
81', Jimenez A. ↓, Sienra A. ↑,
81', Cipenga B. ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
84', Illescas M. ↓, Almenara G. ↑,
86', Brignani F. 🟨,
87', 1 - 1, Fernandez Sanchez M. (Penalty Awarded),
88', Anuar 🟨,

Preview

Watch a clash between a mid-table side and a current leader (ranked 11 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ LaLiga2 (Promotion ~ Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

Ceuta has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Castellón is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, Castellón is the team to beat.

There will not play in Ceuta: Anuar (Injury) Bassinga A. (Yellow Cards) Caparros A. (Injury) Kone K. (Ankle Injury)

There are questionable in Ceuta: Domenech M. (Injury)

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Ceuta won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:8. (average 2:2.7).

Including home match between the teams, Ceuta won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 1:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Castellon	8	6	2	0	15:3	12	20
21	Ceuta	9	1	2	6	8:20	-12	5

Last Results with these Odds

Castellón - the odds 1.89 are the expected chance of winning is 49.77%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish LaLiga2
03.05.26	Sporting de Gijón - Ceuta	1:2 ✺
26.04.26	Ceuta - Racing Santander	0:0 ✺
18.04.26	Zaragoza - Ceuta	2:2 ✺
10.04.26	Ceuta - Real Sociedad B	0:0 ✺
05.04.26	Eibar - Ceuta	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.6 WTTTL
- CD Castellón
Spanish LaLiga2
02.05.26	Castellón - Córdoba	1:2 ✺
25.04.26	Málaga - Castellón	2:3 ✺
18.04.26	Castellón - Burgos	3:1 ✺
12.04.26	Mirandés - Castellón	2:2 ✺
06.04.26	Castellón - Granada	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.4 LWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Spanish LaLiga2
14.09.25	Castellón - Ceuta	3:3
Spanish Primera RFEF Group 2
11.02.24	Castellón - Ceuta	2:2
15.10.23	Ceuta - Castellón	1:3

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