Match Info

LaLiga2 - Round 10

Date: 18 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Municipal Alfonso Murube (Ceuta)

Referee: Gonzalez M. (Esp)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Ceuta		Mirandés

	1	X	2
	1.68	3.4	5	Watch
	2	3.15	3.8
	1.86	3.48	4.93
	1.27	5.02	13.21	Watch
	1.99	3.3	3.82	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.76 ↓ (1.94)	3.67 ↑ (3.43)	6.15 ↑ (3.71)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 2.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Ceuta
56.6%

Draw
27.2%

Mirandés
16.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.9%

27.1%

25%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49.4%

26.3%

24.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Ceuta has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+8.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Ceuta's performance.

Mirandés has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Mirandés might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ceuta than the current prediction. (-7.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Ceuta that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Mirandés than the current prediction. (+8%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Mirandés could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
44.4%	11.1%	44.4%

Ceuta - Mirandés Predictions

Users Predictions: 9 users predict this event. Ceuta will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). Mirandés will win (votes: 4 - 44.4%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 11.1%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Ceuta: 11.9% – 76.9%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Tie (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
13. Vallejo G. (G) 23. Anuar 6. Hernandez C. (C) 15. Gonzalez D. 3. Matos Jose 8. Zalazar K. 5. Youness 19. Jamelli 7. Ahmed A. 9. Fernandez Sanchez M. 22. Kone K.	13. Juanpa (G) 2. Novoa Ramos H. 22. Gutierrez J. (C) 4. Pascual M. 24. Cordoba I. 17. Perez P. 26. Bauza R. 18. Barea Fernandez I. 19. Illesca M. 30. El Jebari S. 14. Mari A.
Substitutes
26. Bassinga A. 14. Bodiger Y. 24. Cantero Y. 18. de la Fuente K. 20. Escudero A. 1. Lopez P. (G) 12. Obeng S. 16. Redruello Nimo C. 10. Rodriguez C. 2. Sanchez M. 25. Sanchez S. 21. Vallejo M.	11. Cardero A. 20. Eto'o E. 10. Fernandez C. 6. Helguera T. 8. Martin Luis A. 3. Medrano F. 1. Nikic I. (G) 9. Petit G. 5. Pica A. 21. Postigo S. 7. Varela I.
Coaches
Romero J.	Justo F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Matos Jose ⚽, Kone K. (A),
20', Jamelli 🟨,
30', Kone K. ↓, de la Fuente K. ↑,
37', 2 - 0, de la Fuente K. ⚽, Fernandez Sanchez M. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Barea Fernandez I. ↓, Varela I. ↑,
49', Anuar 🟨,
67', Mari A. ↓, Eto'o E. ↑,
68', El Jebari S. ↓, Fernandez C. ↑,
68', Illesca M. ↓, Helguera T. ↑,
72', Bauza R. 🟨,
73', Ahmed A. ↓, Sanchez S. ↑,
73', Jamelli ↓, Bassinga A. ↑,
73', Zalazar K. ↓, Bodiger Y. ↑,
73', Cordoba I. ↓, Medrano F. ↑,
88', Fernandez Sanchez M. ↓, Obeng S. ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 14 and 20 in the zone Relegation).

Ceuta is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Mirandés's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Ceuta may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Ceuta is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Ceuta: Almenara G. (Injury) Obeng S. (Injury) Ortuno J. (Injury)

There will not play in Mirandés: Nikic I. (International duty)

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Last Results with these Odds

Mirandés - the odds 3.71 are the expected chance of winning is 25.02%, but this team recently wins 18% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Ceuta
Spanish LaLiga2
12.10.25	Albacete Balompié - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
03.10.25	Ceuta - Eibar	1:0 ✺
28.09.25	Cádiz - Ceuta	0:0 ✺
21.09.25	Ceuta - Zaragoza	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	Castellón - Ceuta	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 22.4 TWTWT
- CD Mirandés
Spanish LaLiga2
11.10.25	Mirandés - Leganés	0:0 ✺
05.10.25	Valladolid - Mirandés	1:1 ✺
26.09.25	Mirandés - Zaragoza	0:1 ✺
20.09.25	FC Andorra - Mirandés	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Mirandés - Deportivo A Coruña	1:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.6 TTLTL

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