Match Info

Serie B - Relegation Group - Round 2

Date: 2 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Ciudad de Pelileo (Pelileo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Ecuador	Canal del Futbol, El Canal del Futbol 2, El Canal del Futbol app, El Canal del Futbol, Zapping


	Chacaritas		Cumbayá

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.46	3.55	2.02
	1.01	17.74	25.00	Watch
	4	3.2	1.83
	3.76	3.18	1.93	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↓ (3.66)	6.92 ↑ (3.1)	7.7 ↑ (2.02)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chacaritas
54.4%

Draw
24%

Cumbayá
21.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25%

29.6%

45.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

23.7%

28.1%

47.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chacaritas has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+29.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chacaritas's performance.

Cumbayá has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-23.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Cumbayá might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chacaritas than the current prediction. (-30.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chacaritas that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cumbayá than the current prediction. (+26.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Cumbayá could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chacaritas - Cumbayá Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, Valencia K. ⚽,
24', 2 - 0, Valencia K. ⚽,
36', 3 - 0, Valencia K. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
79', 3 - 1, ⚽,
81', 4 - 1, Corozo R. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chacaritas won 2.

Chacaritas has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Cumbayá is going through a rough patch (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Cumbayá is considered a favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Chacaritas won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 7:5. (average 1:0.7).

Including home matches between the teams, Chacaritas won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.5:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Chacaritas - the odds 3.66 are the expected chance of winning is 25.05%, but this team recently wins 11% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chacaritas FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
28.08.25	Chacaritas - Imbabura	2:3 ✺
17.08.25	Chacaritas - Gualaceo	1:1 ✺
10.08.25	Cumbayá - Chacaritas	1:3 ✺
31.07.25	Chacaritas - 9 de Octubre	1:1 ✺
22.07.25	22 de Julio - Chacaritas	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 17.4 LTWTL
- Cumbayá FC
Ecuadorian Serie B
26.08.25	Cumbayá - Vargas Torres	1:1 ✺
17.08.25	Atlético Vinotinto - Cumbayá	4:0 ✺
10.08.25	Cumbayá - Chacaritas	1:3 ✺
30.07.25	Guayaquil City - Cumbayá	1:0 ✺
22.07.25	Cumbayá - Vargas Torres	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 TLLLW

Latest Head to Head

Ecuadorian Serie B
10.08.25	Cumbayá - Chacaritas	1:3
29.05.25	Chacaritas - Cumbayá	1:1
Ecuadorian Copa
02.07.22	Chacaritas - Cumbayá	0:2
Ecuadorian Serie B
28.09.21	Cumbayá - Chacaritas	0:2
03.08.21	Chacaritas - Cumbayá	0:1
20.06.21	Cumbayá - Chacaritas	0:0
12.05.21	Chacaritas - Cumbayá	1:0

Chacaritas - Cumbayá: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide