Match Info

K3 League - Round 10

Date: 25 May 2025, Sunday


	Changwon City		Paju Frontier

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3	3.1
	2.22	3.15	3	Watch
	2.23	3.18	3.17
	2.18	3.28	3.09	Watch
	2.2	2.9	3.2
	2.18	3.1	3.16	Watch
	2.22	3.15	3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.2 ↑ (1.96)	3.11 ↓ (3.4)	3.1 ↓ (3.4)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Changwon City
41.4%

Draw
29.3%

Paju Frontier
29.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46.4%

26.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

49%

25.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Changwon City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

Paju Frontier has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Changwon City than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Changwon City, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Paju Frontier than the current prediction. (-3.9%)

Changwon City - Paju Frontier Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Changwon (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
26', 0 - 1, Kim Jeong-Su ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

The two neighboring teams will play an exciting match (ranked 10 and 12)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Changwon won 2.

In recent matches, Changwon has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Paju Citizen is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Changwon may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Changwon will hold a modest advantage in this match.

In the last 8 head-to-head matches, Changwon won 3 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:8. (average 0.9:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Changwon won 0 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 2:4. (average 0.5:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Changwon City FC
South Korean K3 League
18.05.25	Gangneung - Changwon City	1:0 ✺
10.05.25	Changwon City - Gimhae	0:1 ✺
02.05.25	Daejeon Korail - Changwon City	1:1 ✺
27.04.25	Changwon City - Ulsan Citizen	2:1 ✺
19.04.25	Jeonbuk 2 - Changwon City	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.9 LLTWW
- Paju Frontier
South Korean K3 League
18.05.25	Paju Frontier - Chuncheon	0:1 ✺
11.05.25	Gyeongju KH&NP - Paju Frontier	1:1 ✺
04.05.25	Gangneung - Paju Frontier	1:1 ✺
26.04.25	Paju Frontier - Gimhae	1:2 ✺
20.04.25	Daejeon Korail - Paju Frontier	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LTTLL

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K3 League
13.07.24	Paju Frontier - Changwon City	1:2
30.03.24	Changwon City - Paju Frontier	1:2
19.08.23	Paju Frontier - Changwon City	1:2
21.04.23	Changwon City - Paju Frontier	0:0
02.07.22	Paju Frontier - Changwon City	2:0
19.03.22	Changwon City - Paju Frontier	0:1
06.11.21	Paju Frontier - Changwon City	0:1

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