Match Info

K3 League - Round 12

Date: 23 May 2026, Saturday


	Changwon City		Ulsan Citizen

	1	X	2
	1.9	3	3.75
	1.92	3.05	3.8	Watch
	1.99	3.15	4.25
	2.02	3.05	3.79	Watch
	1.95	2.8	3.8
	1.92	3	4.04
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.94)	3.01 ↓ (3.09)	3.91 ↓ (4.17)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 5.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Changwon City
46.6%

Draw
30.2%

Ulsan Citizen
23.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

47.8%

30%

22.2%

Our Initial ML Estimation

40%

25.1%

26.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Changwon City has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.2%)

Ulsan Citizen has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Changwon City than the current prediction. (-6.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Changwon City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Ulsan Citizen than the current prediction. (+3.2%)

Changwon City - Ulsan Citizen Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
44', 1 - 0, ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
55', 2 - 0, ⚽,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 7 and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Changwon won 4.

Changwon has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Ulsan Citizen's performance has dropped in recent matches (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

In this match, Changwon is a strong favorite.

In the last 9 head-to-head matches, Changwon won 6 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 12:8. (average 1.3:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, Changwon won 3 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 5:3. (average 1.3:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
8	Changwon	23	7	8	8	26:28	-2	29
9	Ulsan Citizen	23	8	4	11	24:26	-2	28

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Changwon City FC
South Korean K3 League
16.05.26	Pocheon - Changwon City	0:0 ✺
09.05.26	Yangpyeong - Changwon City	1:0 ✺
02.05.26	Changwon City - Siheung	1:1 ✺
25.04.26	Daejeon Korail - Changwon City	1:0 ✺
19.04.26	Changwon City - Gyeongju KH&NP	3:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TLTLW
- Ulsan Citizen FC
South Korean K3 League
16.05.26	Ulsan Citizen - Yangpyeong	0:0 ✺
09.05.26	Ulsan Citizen - Siheung	0:1 ✺
01.05.26	Ulsan Citizen - Daejeon Korail	0:1 ✺
25.04.26	Gyeongju KH&NP - Ulsan Citizen	2:2 ✺
19.04.26	Busan Kyotong - Ulsan Citizen	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

South Korean K3 League
23.08.25	Ulsan Citizen - Changwon City	0:1
27.04.25	Changwon City - Ulsan Citizen	2:1
07.09.24	Changwon City - Ulsan Citizen	1:0
11.05.24	Ulsan Citizen - Changwon City	0:4
23.06.23	Changwon City - Ulsan Citizen	1:2
11.03.23	Ulsan Citizen - Changwon City	3:0
17.09.22	Ulsan Citizen - Changwon City	0:2

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