Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 12

Date: 16 June 2025, Monday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)

Referee: Policarpo Bento A. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Chapecoense		Ferroviária

	1	X	2
	2.15	2.88	4	Watch
	2.1	2.85	3.7
	2.2	2.78	3.75
	2.21	2.87	4.21
	2.12	2.92	3.69	Watch
	2.15	2.9	3.8
	2.19	2.83	3.98	Watch
	2.2	2.78	3.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.17 ↑ (2)	2.85 ↓ (3.07)	3.86 ↑ (3.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 1.75

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
43.1%

Draw
32.7%

Ferroviária
24.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

30%

24%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47.5%

29.1%

23.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.9%)

Ferroviária has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+4.4%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ferroviária than the current prediction. (-1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
90.9%	9.1%	0%

Chapecoense - Ferroviária Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 7 Selected Experts predict this event. Chapecoense (votes: 5 - 71.4%). Ferroviária (votes: 2 - 28.6%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTS - no (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

DC - Ferroviária (1.62) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Chapecoense will win (10 of 11 users predict this - 90.91%).
Confidence interval (95%): 73.92% – 100%.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Chapecoense (votes: 5 - 62.5%). Ferroviária (votes: 3 - 37.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Leo Vieira (G) 3. Eduardo Doma 33. Bruno Leonardo (C) 25. Victor Caetano 22. Mailton 16. Bruno Matias 99. Rafael Carvalheira 10. Giovanni Augusto 37. Clar W. 7. Marcinho 18. Neto Pessoa	41. Denis Junior (G) 2. Lucas Rodrigues 13. Gustavo Medina 22. Ronaldo Alves (C) 66. Edson Lucas 35. Netinho 5. Ricardinho 20. Albano 39. Thayllon 92. Carlao 37. Thiago Lopes
Substitutes
19. David Antunes 31. Deivity (G) 97. Dentinho 26. Everton 77. Italo 32. Jhonnathan 90. Mailson 6. Mancha 95. Marcinho 8. Marlon 48. Pedro Martins 1. Rafael Santos (G)	8. Alencar 95. Filipe Costa (G) 25. Ian Luccas 70. Igor Bolt 43. Joao Ramos 77. Juninho 7. Kevin 1. Leo Wall (G) 9. Ronaldo 29. Tarik 57. Wesley Pomba
Coaches
Gilmar Pozzo	Vinicius Bergantin

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', 1 - 0, Marcinho ⚽, Mailton (A),
42', Victor Caetano 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
53', 2 - 0, Marcinho ⚽,
61', Thiago Lopes ↓, Juninho ↑,
61', Ricardinho ↓, Alencar ↑,
65', Neto Pessoa ↓, Mailson ↑,
65', Victor Caetano ↓, Jhonnathan ↑,
73', Edson Lucas ↓, Kevin ↑,
73', Thayllon ↓, Ronaldo ↑,
74', Eduardo Doma ↓, Everton ↑,
74', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Italo ↑,
77', Ronaldo Alves 🟨,
83', 2 - 1, Juninho ⚽,
84', Marcinho ↓, Marlon ↑,
85', Netinho ↓, Ian Luccas ↑,
90+4', Italo 🟨,

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 9 and 13).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Chapecoense may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Chapecoense could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Chapecoense: Getulio (Injury) Joao Paulo (Yellow Cards)

There will not play in Ferroviária: Caua A. (Inactive) Denilson (Inactive) Eric Melo (Yellow Cards) Quirino (Red Card)

There are questionable in Chapecoense: Eduardo Person (Inactive)

Recently, there has been no match between the teams.

Last Results with these Odds

Chapecoense - the odds 2 are the expected chance of winning is 46.01%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie B
06.06.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
02.06.25	Chapecoense - Amazonas	4:0 ✺
24.05.25	Avaí - Chapecoense	2:1 ✺
16.05.25	Chapecoense - Cuiabá	2:1 ✺
08.05.25	Athletico Paranaense - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.4 LWLWT
- Associação Ferroviária de Esportes
Brazilian Serie B
07.06.25	América Mineiro - Ferroviária	1:2 ✺
29.05.25	Ferroviária - Botafogo SP	1:1 ✺
23.05.25	Goiás - Ferroviária	2:0 ✺
15.05.25	Ferroviária - Avaí	1:1 ✺
11.05.25	Grêmio Novorizontino - Ferroviária	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 15.3 WTLTT

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