Match Info

Serie B Superbet - Round 8

Date: 16 May 2025, Friday

Location: Arena Condá (Chapecó)

Referee: Casagrande L. (Bra)

Where to Watch on TV:


Brazil	Claro TV+, Disney+, ESPN, Sky+, Vivo Play, Zapping


	Chapecoense		Cuiabá

	1	X	2
	2.8	2.8	2.7	Watch
	2.6	2.9	2.7
	2.75	2.9	2.75
	2.95	2.94	2.78
	2.86	2.81	2.78	Watch
	2.7	2.8	2.88
	2.84	2.84	2.74	Watch
	2.75	2.9	2.75
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.78 ↑ (2.28)	2.86 ↓ (3.2)	2.76 ↓ (3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chapecoense
33.6%

Draw
32.6%

Cuiabá
33.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

40.4%

28.8%

30.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

41.8%

27.8%

29.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chapecoense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chapecoense's form might have worsened.

Cuiabá has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chapecoense than the current prediction. (+8.2%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chapecoense, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cuiabá than the current prediction. (-4.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
33.3%	50%	16.7%

Chapecoense - Cuiabá Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Chapecoense will win (votes: 2 - 33.3%). Cuiabá will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 3 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Leo Vieira (G) 25. Victor Caetano 33. Bruno Leonardo 4. Joao Paulo 22. Mailton 99. Rafael Carvalheira 16. Bruno Matias 37. Clar W. 10. Giovanni Augusto (C) 11. Getulio 7. Marcinho	14. Mateus Pasinato (G) 98. Matheusinho 4. Nathan 33. Alan Empereur (C) 6. Sander 70. Juan Christian 30. Lucas Mineiro 27. Denilson Alves 7. Pedrinho 8. Max Alves 22. Derik Lacerda
Substitutes
97. Dentinho 3. Eduardo Doma 26. Everton 77. Italo 5. Jorge Jimenez 90. Mailson 6. Mancha 95. Marcinho 9. Mario Sergio 48. Pedro Martins 1. Rafael Santos (G) 30. Thomas Bedinelli	1. Arthur (G) 3. Bruno Alves 55. Calebe Costa 45. De Lucca 9. Edu 13. Guilherme Mariano 77. Jadson 2. Leonardo Ataide 99. Lucas Cardoso 10. Ruan Oliveira
Coaches
Gilmar Pozzo	Guto Ferreira

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
8', 1 - 0, Mailton ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Pedrinho ↓, Edu ↑,
59', Derik Lacerda ↓, Jadson ↑,
60', Lucas Mineiro ↓, De Lucca ↑,
60', Getulio ↓, Dentinho ↑,
65', Bruno Matias 🟨,
68', 1 - 1, De Lucca ⚽, Matheusinho (A),
71', Marcinho ↓, Italo ↑,
72', Giovanni Augusto ↓, Mailson ↑,
77', 2 - 1, Italo ⚽,
83', Max Alves ↓, Lucas Cardoso ↑,
86', Clar W. ↓, Mancha ↑,
86', Rafael Carvalheira ↓, Jorge Jimenez ↑,
90+4', Nathan ↓, Guilherme Mariano ↑,

Preview

A mid-table team takes on a leader in this match (ranked 8 and 5).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 2.

Chapecoense is undoubtedly in great shape (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Cuiabá has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chapecoense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

The probability of winning is almost the same for both teams in this match.

There will not play in Chapecoense: Eduardo Person (Inactive) Felipe Vieira (Injury) Romulo (Injury)

There will not play in Cuiabá: Asad Y. (Inactive) Denilson Alves (Yellow Cards)

In the last 6 head-to-head matches, Chapecoense won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 3 matches, and goals 7:7. (average 1.2:1.2).

Including home matches between the teams, Chapecoense won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Last Results with these Odds

Cuiabá - the odds 3 are the expected chance of winning is 30.74%, but this team recently wins 43% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chapecoense-SC
Brazilian Serie B
08.05.25	Athletico Paranaense - Chapecoense	1:1 ✺
04.05.25	Chapecoense - Criciúma	2:1 ✺
25.04.25	Vila Nova - Chapecoense	1:0 ✺
20.04.25	Chapecoense - Athletic Club	1:0 ✺
16.04.25	Paysandu - Chapecoense	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 21.6 TWLWW
- Cuiabá EC
Brazilian Serie B
11.05.25	Cuiabá - Operário Ferroviario	2:3 ✺
06.05.25	CRB Maceio - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
27.04.25	Cuiabá - Ferroviária	1:0 ✺
22.04.25	Atlético Goianiense - Cuiabá	1:1 ✺
15.04.25	Cuiabá - Athletico Paranaense	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.3 LTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Serie A
04.11.21	Cuiabá - Chapecoense	0:0
18.07.21	Chapecoense - Cuiabá	2:3
Brazilian Serie B
01.12.20	Chapecoense - Cuiabá	1:0
28.08.20	Cuiabá - Chapecoense	2:1
Copa Sudamericana
31.08.16	Chapecoense - Cuiabá	3:1
25.08.16	Cuiabá - Chapecoense	1:0

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