Match Info

ENGLAND: National League South - Round 22

Date: 21 December 2024, Saturday


	Chelmsford City		Weymouth

	1	X	2
	1.53	3.75	5
	1.57	3.75	5.5
	1.56	3.91	5.49
	1.57	3.94	5.75	Watch
	1.6	3.75	5
	1.54	4	5.46
	1.57	3.75	5.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.56 ↓ (2.01)	3.84 ↑ (3.44)	5.39 ↑ (3.41)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelmsford City
58.9%

Draw
24%

Weymouth
17.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

46%

26.9%

27.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

20.9%

34.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelmsford City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chelmsford City's performance.

Weymouth has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Weymouth might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chelmsford City than the current prediction. (-23.1%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chelmsford City that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Weymouth than the current prediction. (+17.7%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Weymouth could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chelmsford City - Weymouth Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 15 and 24 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chelmsford won 4.

The competitors look crappy now.

Weymouth could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match Chelmsford is a favorite.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Chelmsford won 5 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 12:7 (average 2:1.2).

Including matches at home between the teams Chelmsford won 3 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 6:2 (average 2:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelmsford City
English National League South
14.12.24	Hampton & Richmond Borough - Chelmsford City	3:2 ✺
02.12.24	Chelmsford City - Boreham Wood	2:3 ✺
30.11.24	Chelmsford City - Slough Town	3:1 ✺
23.11.24	Worthing - Chelmsford City	1:1 ✺
English FA Trophy
16.11.24	Peterborough Sports - Chelmsford City	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 LLWTL
- Weymouth
English National League South
14.12.24	Hemel Hempstead Town - Weymouth	3:0 ✺
English FA Trophy
10.12.24	Yeovil Town - Weymouth	1:2 ✺
English National League South
30.11.24	Weymouth - Tonbridge Angels	0:1 ✺
26.11.24	Weymouth - Truro City	1:4 ✺
23.11.24	Hornchurch - Weymouth	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.4 LWLLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League South
10.02.24	Chelmsford City - Weymouth	1:0
26.08.23	Weymouth - Chelmsford City	0:3
21.01.23	Weymouth - Chelmsford City	1:2
20.08.22	Chelmsford City - Weymouth	3:1
10.08.19	Weymouth - Chelmsford City	4:1
English FA Cup
30.09.17	Chelmsford City - Weymouth	2:1

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