Match Info

EFL Cup - 1/32-finals

Date: 27 August 2026, Thursday

Location: Stamford Bridge (London)

Referee: Bell E. (Eng)

Where to Watch on TV:


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	Chelsea		Luton Town

	1	X	2
	1.08	10	17	Watch
	1.14	10	15
	1.12	8.50	17.00
	1.16	8.42	15.73
	1.15	8.06	16.13	Watch
	1.13	8.35	15.00
	1.17	8.40	16.00	Watch
	1.16	8.00	14.00
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.14 ↓ (1.22)	8.72 ↑ (6.15)	15.73 ↑ (11.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 4.00

The best margin for this event is 3.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chelsea
83.1%

Draw
10.9%

Luton Town
6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

76.6%

15.2%

8.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chelsea has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.5%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chelsea's performance.

Luton Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.3%	6.7%	0%

Chelsea - Luton Town Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (1.66) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

1X2, 1st Half - Chelsea (1.43) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Chelsea will win (14 of 15 users predict this - 93.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 80.7% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chelsea will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Chelsea (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 3:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
39. Penders M. (G) 27. Gusto M. 34. Acheampong J. 5. Lacroix M. 29. Chavarria P. 24. James R. (C) 4. Barco V. 41. Estêvão 10. Palmer C. 17. Rogers M. 18. Welbeck D.	24. Keeley J. (G) 33. Ashby H. 2. Odoffin H. 6. Johnston G. 12. Johnson J. 31. Benagr B. 30. Kodua G. 8. Walsh L. (C) 45. Palmer K. 11. Lawrence E. 9. Marshall C.
Substitutes
30. Anselmino A. 22. Emegha E. 11. Gittens J. 21. Hato J. 9. Joao Pedro 45. Lavia R. 7. Neto P. 1. Sanchez R. (G) 31. Watson R.	5. Andersen M. 42. Chigozie C. 44. Cole D. 22. Fox H. 25. Jones I. 3. Naismith K. 7. Richards J. 1. Shea J. (G) 21. Wells N.
Coaches
Alonso X.	Wilshere J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Kodua G. ↓, Richards J. ↑,
50', 1 - 0, Welbeck D. ⚽, Gusto M. (A),
56', Johnson J. 🟨,
61', Lawrence E. ↓, Fox H. ↑,
61', Benagr B. ↓, Jones I. ↑,
67', James R. ↓, Neto P. ↑,
67', Gusto M. ↓, Hato J. ↑,
68', Rogers M. ↓, Lavia R. ↑,
73', Welbeck D. ↓, Joao Pedro ↑,
78', Marshall C. ↓, Wells N. ↑,
78', Palmer K. ↓, Cole D. ↑,
79', 2 - 0, Odoffin H. (Own goal),
80', Estêvão ↓, Gittens J. ↑,

Preview

Chelsea has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Luton is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Chelsea may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Chelsea has had a series of home games.

In this match, Chelsea is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Chelsea: Anselmino A. (Inactive) Emegha E. (Hamstring Injury) Henderson J. (Wrist Injury) Sarr M. (Injury)

There will not play in Luton: Baptiste S. (Knee Injury) Luker J. (Injury)

There are questionable in Chelsea: Caicedo M. (Injury)

There are questionable in Luton: Clark J. (Injury)

In the last 4 head-to-head matches, Chelsea won 4 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 12:5. (average 3:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Chelsea won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:1. (average 3:0.5).

Outrights of English League Cup for now

Chelsea: 11.11%

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chelsea
English Premier League
24.08.26	Fulham - Chelsea	2:3 ✺
Club Friendly
15.08.26	Chelsea - Real Sociedad	3:1 ✺
08.08.26	Chelsea - Milan	3:0 ✺
05.08.26	Chelsea - Juventus	0:1 ✺
01.08.26	Chelsea - Tottenham Hotspur	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 WWWLL
- Luton Town
English League One
22.08.26	Luton Town - Notts County	2:2 ✺
15.08.26	Reading - Luton Town	3:4 ✺
English League Cup
08.08.26	Gillingham - Luton Town	0:3 ✺
Club Friendly
02.08.26	Luton Town - Go Ahead Eagles	0:1 ✺
25.07.26	Luton Town - Al-Kholood	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.7 TWWLW

Latest Head to Head

English Premier League
30.12.23	Luton Town - Chelsea	2:3
25.08.23	Chelsea - Luton Town	3:0
English FA Cup
02.03.22	Luton Town - Chelsea	2:3
24.01.21	Chelsea - Luton Town	3:1

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