Match Info

ENGLAND: EFL CUP - 1/64-FINALS

Date: 8 August 2023, Tuesday

Location: Whaddon Road (Cheltenham)

Referee: Hicks C. (Eng)


	Cheltenham Town		Birmingham City

	1	X	2
	3.5	3.6	2.05
	3.4	3.4	2.1
	3.5	3.45	2.05
	3.63	3.54	2.05
	2.7	3.2	2.25
	3.54	3.54	2.03	Watch
	3.4	3.55	2.06
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.38 ↑ (2.9)	3.47 ↑ (3.44)	2.08 ↓ (2.3)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cheltenham Town
27.8%

Draw
27.1%

Birmingham City
45.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

32.2%

27.1%

40.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

31.6%

26.6%

41.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cheltenham Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)

Birmingham City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Cheltenham Town than the current prediction. (+3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Birmingham City than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
8.3%	33.3%	58.3%

Cheltenham Town - Birmingham City Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Cheltenham will win (votes: 1 - 8.3%). Birmingham will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). It will Tie (votes: 4 - 33.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Birmingham: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Southwood L. (G) 2. Long S. (C) 33. Davies C. 6. Freestone L. 22. Smith L. 14. Thompson C. 18. Chapman E. 3. Williams B. 17. Olayinka J. 7. Hammond O. 11. Street R.	1. Etheridge N. (G) 24. Oakley M. 5. Sanderson D. (C) 26. Long K. 23. Emmanuel M. L. 7. Bacuna J. 15. Chang A. 19. James J. 14. Anderson K. 11. Miyoshi K. 10. Jutkiewicz L.
Substitutes
16. Adshead D. 4. Bradbury T. 15. Ferry W. 20. Harris M. (G) 24. Horton G. 10. Keena A. 29. KIng T. 28. Sambu A. 8. Sercombe L.	6. Bielik K. 16. Cosgrove S. 17. Dembele S. 49. Donovan R. 20. Gardner G. 9. Hogan S. 38. Jeacock Z. (G) 27. Khela B. 34. Sunjic I.
Coaches
Elliott W.	Eustace J.

Preview

Recent matches Cheltenham is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Birmingham is in super good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Recently Birmingham have a series of guest games.

Birmingham will have a small advantage in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Cheltenham won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-9.

Including matches at home between the teams Cheltenham won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 3-9.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cheltenham Town
English League One
05.08.23	Shrewsbury Town - Cheltenham Town	1:0 ✺
Club Friendly
25.07.23	Cheltenham Town - Bristol City	1:1 ✺
22.07.23	Cheltenham Town - Birmingham City	2:3 ✺
18.07.23	Cheltenham Town - West Bromwich Albion	1:0 ✺
15.07.23	Weston-super-Mare - Cheltenham Town	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.5 LTLWW
- Birmingham City
English League Championship
05.08.23	Swansea City - Birmingham City	1:1 ✺
Club Friendly
29.07.23	Peterborough United - Birmingham City	3:2 ✺
22.07.23	Cheltenham Town - Birmingham City	2:3 ✺
19.07.23	Northampton Town - Birmingham City	0:1 ✺
14.07.23	Birmingham City - Cartagena	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12 TLWWW

Latest Head to Head

Club Friendly
22.07.23	Cheltenham Town - Birmingham City	2:3
19.07.22	Cheltenham Town - Birmingham City	1:0
17.07.21	Cheltenham Town - Birmingham City	0:3
21.07.18	Cheltenham Town - Birmingham City	0:3

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