What is the expert prediction for Chengdu Rongcheng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long?

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Chengdu Rongcheng vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Predictions, H2H Stats & TV Channels (Saturday, July 11, 2026)

Match Info

Super League - Round 18

Date: 11 July 2026, Saturday

Location: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park (Chengdu)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	Migu
Usa	SportsEngine Play


	Chengdu Rongcheng		Chongqing Tongliang Long

	1	X	2
	1.19	6	13	Watch
	1.33	4.80	7.75
	1.22	6.1	11	Watch
	1.25	6.2	12.24
	1.25	5.82	10.74	Watch
	1.22	6.1	12
	1.22	5.96	12.3	Watch
	1.24	6.2	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.41)	5.9 ↑ (4.55)	11.25 ↑ (7.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 4.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chengdu Rongcheng
75.7%

Draw
15.9%

Chongqing Tongliang Long
8.3%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

66.3%

20.6%

13.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

67.8%

20.1%

12.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chengdu Rongcheng has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chengdu Rongcheng's performance.

Chongqing Tongliang Long has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chengdu Rongcheng than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chengdu Rongcheng that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chongqing Tongliang Long than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
80%	20%	0%

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Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Chengdu Rongcheng will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Liu Dianzuo (G) 4. He Yiran 18. Han Pengfei 28. Sorokin E. 2. Hu H. 16. Yang Ming-Yang 23. Liao Lisheng 11. Wellington Silva 10. Romulo 7. Wei Shihao (C) 9. Felipe Silva	1. Yao Haoyang (G) 24. Liu Mingshi 4. Yue Ruijie 33. Lucao 3. Zhang Yingkai 26. He Xiaoqiang 21. Liu Jiale 10. Amadou I. (C) 16. Zhang Zhixiong 27. Wu Yongqiang 11. Dimata L.
Substitutes
27. Abduweli Behram 19. Dong Y. 39. Gan Chao 29. Iminqari M. 1. Jian Tao (G) 3. Jojo A. C. 58. Liao Rongxiang 22. Li Y. 25. Muzepper Murahmetjan 15. Ran Weifeng (G) 17. Wang Dongsheng 20. Wang Ziming	15. Chen Chunxin 9. Cimpanu G. 19. Du Yuezheng 6. Jin Pengxiang 18. Liang Weipeng 38. Ruan Qilong 37. Wei Suowei 31. Wu Zitong (G) 7. Xiang Yuwang 25. Yerzat Yerjet (G)
Coaches
Aloisi J.	Liu Jianye

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
15', Yang Ming-Yang 🟨,
30', Wu Yongqiang 🟨,
35', 1 - 0, Felipe Silva ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
46', Wu Yongqiang ↓, Cimpanu G. ↑,
49', 1 - 1, Dimata L. ⚽, Zhang Yingkai (A),
62', Liu Jiale ↓, Xiang Yuwang ↑,
76', He Yiran ↓, Wang Dongsheng ↑,
81', Wei Shihao 🟨,
90', Zhang Zhixiong ↓, Ruan Qilong ↑,
90', Dimata L. ↓, Du Yuezheng ↑,
90', He Xiaoqiang ↓, Wei Suowei ↑,
90+4', Han Pengfei 🟨,

Preview

One of today’s top clashes will feature two teams fighting for the top spots (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (League phase: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2).

Chengdu Rongcheng is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Chongqing's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Recently, Chengdu Rongcheng has had a series of away games.

In this match, Chengdu Rongcheng is the clear favorite.

There will not play in Chengdu Rongcheng: Matheus Jussa (Injury)

There will not play in Chongqing: Li Zhenquan (Injury) Ngadeu M. (Red Card)

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Chengdu Rongcheng won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 3:4. (average 1.5:2).

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Standings

2026

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Chengdu Rongcheng	18	13	3	2	38:17	21	42
2	Chongqing Tonglianglong	18	7	7	4	22:20	2	28

Last Results with these Odds

Chengdu Rongcheng - the odds 1.41 are the expected chance of winning is 66.32%, but this team recently wins 86% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chengdu Rongcheng
Chinese Super League
05.07.26	Qingdao Hainiu - Chengdu Rongcheng	1:1 ✺
27.06.26	Shenzhen Peng City - Chengdu Rongcheng	2:3 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
20.06.26	Shanghai Zetian - Chengdu Rongcheng	0:4 ✺
Chinese Super League
30.05.26	Chengdu Rongcheng - Shandong Taishan	1:0 ✺
23.05.26	Dalian Young Boy - Chengdu Rongcheng	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.9 TWWWL
- Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chinese Super League
04.07.26	Liaoning Tieren - Chongqing Tongliang Long	3:1 ✺
27.06.26	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Tianjin Jinmen Tiger	1:0 ✺
Chinese FA Cup
20.06.26	Ningbo Professional - Chongqing Tongliang Long	0:2 ✺
Chinese Super League
30.05.26	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Beijing Guoan	2:3 ✺
24.05.26	Qingdao Hainiu - Chongqing Tongliang Long	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 LWWLW

Latest Head to Head

Chinese Super League
21.03.26	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Chengdu Rongcheng	3:3
Chinese FA Cup
23.06.23	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Chengdu Rongcheng	1:0 penalties

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