Match Info

Super League - Round 15

Date: 30 May 2026, Saturday

Location: Longxing Football Stadium (Chongqing)

Referee: Qiu Zhaojun (Chn)

Where to Watch on TV:


China	Migu


	Chongqing Tongliang Long		Beijing Guoan

	1	X	2
	2.75	3.4	2.35	Watch
	3.8	3.5	1.83
	2.78	3.3	2.38	Watch
	3.09	3.4	2.5
	2.92	3.16	2.48	Watch
	2.8	3.1	2.4
	2.94	3.4	2.3	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.01 ↓ (3.62)	3.32 ↑ (3.16)	2.32 ↑ (2.09)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 1.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chongqing Tongliang Long
31.2%

Draw
28.3%

Beijing Guoan
40.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

25.8%

29.5%

44.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

25.6%

29.2%

45.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chongqing Tongliang Long has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chongqing Tongliang Long's performance.

Beijing Guoan has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chongqing Tongliang Long than the current prediction. (-5.6%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chongqing Tongliang Long that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Beijing Guoan than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
12.5%	12.5%	75%

Chongqing Tongliang Long - Beijing Guoan Predictions

Users Predictions: 16 users predict this event. Chongqing will win (votes: 2 - 12.5%). Beijing Guoan will win (votes: 12 - 75%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 12.5%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Beijing Guoan: 53.8% – 96.2%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Yao Haoyang (G) 33. Lucao 32. Ngadeu M. (C) 3. Zhang Yingkai 24. Liu Mingshi 16. Zhang Zhixiong 10. Amadou I. 37. Wei Suowei 9. Cimpanu G. 11. Dimata L. 15. Chen Chunxin	34. Hou Sen (G) 21. Yue Tze-Nam 27. Wang Gang 5. Ramos G. 26. Bai Yang 7. Serginho 23. Dawhan 8. Konte A. 10. Zhang Xizhe (C) 29. Abreu F. 9. Zhang Yuning
Substitutes
30. Bai Yutao 19. Du Yuezheng 5. Huang X. 6. Jin Pengxiang 8. Li Zhenquan 22. Ma Yujun 17. Ng Yu-Hei 38. Ruan Qilong 28. Wang Haowen 27. Wu Yongqiang 31. Wu Zitong (G) 7. Xiang Yuwang	33. Abbas Nureli (G) 24. Abdugheni Abduhamit 37. Cao Yongjing 6. Chi Zhongguo 47. Deng Jiefu 16. Feng Boxuan 36. Jia Feifan 4. Li Lei 11. Lin Liangming 18. Wang Yu 39. Zhang Jianzhi (G)
Coaches
Liu Jianye	Montgomery N.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
34', 0 - 1, Abreu F. ⚽, Zhang Xizhe (A),
45', Chen Chunxin 🟨,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
46', Chen Chunxin ↓, Wu Yongqiang ↑,
46', Zhang Zhixiong ↓, Ruan Qilong ↑,
46', Wei Suowei ↓, Du Yuezheng ↑,
53', 1 - 1, Dimata L. ⚽, Cimpanu G. (A),
68', 2 - 1, Lucao ⚽, Cimpanu G. (A),
72', Dimata L. 🟨,
79', Wu Yongqiang 🟨,
81', Cimpanu G. ↓, Jin Pengxiang ↑,
81', Yue Tze-Nam ↓, Li Lei ↑,
82', 2 - 2, Serginho ⚽, Zhang Yuning (A),
83', Bai Yang ↓, Lin Liangming ↑,
84', Dimata L. ↓, Xiang Yuwang ↑,
85', 2 - 3, Abreu F. ⚽,
90+3', Zhang Xizhe ↓, Chi Zhongguo ↑,
90+6', Zhang Yuning ↓, Cao Yongjing ↑,
90+9', Hou Sen 🟨,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 2 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League 2 and 12).

Each of the teams is struggling with stability in their game.

Chongqing may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

Recently, Beijing Guoan has had a series of home games.

In this match, Beijing Guoan is a strong favorite.

There will not play in Chongqing: Li Zhenquan (Injury)

There will not play in Beijing Guoan: Spajic U. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Beijing Guoan: Fan Shuangjie (Inactive) Han Jiaqi (Knee Injury) He Yupeng (Foot Injury) Nkololo B. (Injury) Wu Shaocong (Inactive) Yang Liyu (Inactive)

In recent times, the teams did not meet on the field.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
3	Beijing Guoan	26	11	10	5	49:33	16	38
10	Chongqing Tonglianglong	26	7	10	9	27:32	-5	31

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chongqing Tongliang Long
Chinese Super League
24.05.26	Qingdao Hainiu - Chongqing Tongliang Long	0:1 ✺
20.05.26	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Yunnan Yukun	0:0 ✺
16.05.26	Shandong Taishan - Chongqing Tongliang Long	3:1 ✺
09.05.26	Shanghai Shenhua - Chongqing Tongliang Long	2:2 ✺
05.05.26	Chongqing Tongliang Long - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 WTLTT
- Beijing Guoan
Chinese Super League
23.05.26	Beijing Guoan - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:2 ✺
19.05.26	Qingdao West Coast - Beijing Guoan	1:1 ✺
15.05.26	Beijing Guoan - Qingdao Hainiu	4:2 ✺
10.05.26	Beijing Guoan - Shanghai Port	2:2 ✺
06.05.26	Beijing Guoan - Dalian Young Boy	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LTWTW

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