Match Info

AFC Champions League - League phase - Round 5

Date: 25 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Chengdu Phoenix Hill Sports Park (Chengdu)

Where to Watch on TV:


Asia	beIN Connect MENA, beIN Sports MENA 3, TOD
Australia	Paramount+
Bulgaria	Nova Sport
China	iQIYI, Migu, ZhiBo8
Croatia	SportKlub 1
Finland	Veikkaus TV
Hong-kong	HOY TV, M Plus Live
India	FanCode, FanCode, Vision+
Indonesia	K-Vision, MNC Soccer Channel
Iran	IRIB Varzesh
Israel	Sport 3
Japan	DAZN Japan
Malaysia	Astro Arena Bola 2, Astro Go, Sooka
Pakistan	Tapmad
Russia	TV Start
Slovenia	SportKlub 2
South-korea	Coupang Play
Ukraine	Sport 1
World	Sport 1 Baltic


	Chengdu Rongcheng		Sanfrecce Hiroshima

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3	3.4	2.18
	3.52	3.53	2.06
	3.68	3.86	1.85	Watch
	3.22	3.62	2.17	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.36 ↓ (3.9)	3.6 (3.6)	2.07 ↑ (1.95)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 4.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chengdu Rongcheng
28.1%

Draw
26.2%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
45.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

24.5%

26.5%

49%

Our Initial ML Estimation

24.9%

26.9%

48.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chengdu Rongcheng has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.6%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chengdu Rongcheng than the current prediction. (-3.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
58.3%	8.3%	33.3%

Chengdu Rongcheng - Sanfrecce Hiroshima Predictions

Users Predictions: 12 users predict this event. Chengdu Rongcheng will win (votes: 7 - 58.3%). Hiroshima will win (votes: 4 - 33.3%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 8.3%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Chengdu Rongcheng: 30.4% – 86.2%.

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Chengdu Rongcheng (1.95) (votes: 4 - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

O/U 0.5, 1st Half - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Chengdu Rongcheng will win (4 of 4 users predict this - 100%) 🥈 Silver Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 8 Selected Experts predict this event. Chengdu Rongcheng (votes: 8 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jian Tao (G) 2. Hu H. 5. Letschert T. 19. Dong Y. 22. Li Y. 11. Gurfinkel Y. 10. Romulo 8. Chow T. (C) 16. Yang Ming-Yang 7. Wei Shihao 9. Felipe Silva	1. Osako K. (G) 33. Shiotani T. 4. Araki H. (C) 3. Yamasaki T. 15. Nakano S. 30. Arslan T. 14. Tanaka S. 13. Arai N. 9. Germain R. 39. Nakamura S. 17. Kinoshita K.
Substitutes
4. Delgado P. 39. Gan Chao 18. Han Pengfei 58. Liao Rongxiang 48. Li Moyu 32. Liu Dianzuo (G) 25. Muzepper Murahmetjan 24. Tang Chuang 3. Tang Xin 17. Wang Dongsheng 15. Yan Dinghao 26. Yuan Mincheng	25. Chajima Y. 98. Germain V. 38. Hill C. (G) 36. Inoue A. 51. Kato M. 32. Koshimichi S. 41. Maeda N. 18. Suga D. 21. Tanaka Y. (G)
Coaches
Seo Jung-Won	Skibbe M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
11', Letschert T. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
54', 1 - 0, Felipe Silva (Pen),
58', Romulo ↓, Delgado P. ↑,
60', Arai N. ↓, Suga D. ↑,
61', Kinoshita K. ↓, Kato M. ↑,
63', 1 - 1, Kato M. ⚽, Nakamura S. (A),
70', Dong Y. ↓, Yuan Mincheng ↑,
85', Arslan T. ↓, Maeda N. ↑,
90+2', Wei Shihao ↓, Li Moyu ↑,
90+2', Yang Ming-Yang ↓, Yan Dinghao ↑,
90+3', Delgado P. ↓, Liao Rongxiang ↑,
90+5', Yan Dinghao 🟨,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 11 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ AFC Champions League (Play Offs: 1/8~finals)).

Recent form of Chengdu Rongcheng has been disappointing (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Hiroshima has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Hiroshima may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Hiroshima is expected to have a slight advantage in this match.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Last Results with these Odds

Sanfrecce Hiroshima - the odds 1.95 are the expected chance of winning is 48.98%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chengdu Rongcheng
Chinese Super League
22.11.25	Shenzhen Peng City - Chengdu Rongcheng	1:1 ✺
AFC Champions League
04.11.25	FC Seoul - Chengdu Rongcheng	0:0 ✺
Chinese Super League
31.10.25	Chengdu Rongcheng - Henan Songshan Longmen	1:2 ✺
26.10.25	Qingdao West Coast - Chengdu Rongcheng	2:2 ✺
AFC Champions League
21.10.25	Chengdu Rongcheng - Johor Darul Takzim	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 TTLTL
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Japan Emperors Cup
16.11.25	Vissel Kobe - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
08.11.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Urawa Red Diamonds	3:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
04.11.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Gangwon	1:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
01.11.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:3 ✺
Japan J1 League
25.10.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 LWWWL

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