Match Info

YBC Levain Cup - Second stage - Final

Date: 1 November 2025, Saturday

Location: New National Stadium (Tokyo)

Where to Watch on TV:


Japan	SKY PerfecTV!, Sukachan 5


	Kashiwa Reysol		Sanfrecce Hiroshima

	1	X	2
	2.9	3.3	2.45	Watch
	2.88	3.1	2.42	Watch
	2.94	3.20	2.50	Watch
	2.84	3.1	2.47	Watch
	2.86	3.2	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.88 ↑ (2.64)	3.18 ↑ (3.1)	2.47 ↓ (2.63)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 5.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Kashiwa Reysol
32.5%

Draw
29.5%

Sanfrecce Hiroshima
38%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

35.1%

29.8%

35.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35.8%

29.2%

34.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Kashiwa Reysol has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)

Sanfrecce Hiroshima has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Kashiwa Reysol than the current prediction. (+3.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Sanfrecce Hiroshima than the current prediction. (-3.6%)

Kashiwa Reysol - Sanfrecce Hiroshima Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Kojima R. (G) 42. Harada W. 4. Koga T. 2. Mitsumaru H. 32. Yamanouchi Y. 28. Toshima S. 39. Nakagawa N. 14. Koyamatsu T. 8. Koizumi Y. 20. Segawa Y. 18. Kakita Y.	1. Osako K. (G) 33. Shiotani T. 4. Araki H. 19. Sasaki S. 15. Nakano S. 6. Kawabe H. 14. Tanaka S. 24. Higashi S. 9. Germain R. 39. Nakamura S. 17. Kinoshita K.
Substitutes
88. Baba S. 3. Diego 40. Harakawa R. 9. Hosoya M. 13. Inukai T. 21. Konishi Y. 29. Nagai K. (G) 19. Nakama H. 26. Sugioka D.	13. Arai N. 30. Arslan T. 98. Germain V. 26. Jeong Min-Ki (G) 51. Kato M. 41. Maeda N. 10. Marcos Junior 35. Nakajima Y. 3. Yamasaki T.
Coaches
Rodriguez R.	Skibbe M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 3)
25', 0 - 1, Araki H. ⚽, Nakano S. (A),
38', 0 - 2, Higashi S. ⚽,
45+1', Shiotani T. 🟨,
45+2', 0 - 3, Germain R. ⚽, Sasaki S. (A),
2nd Half (1 - 0)
46', Kakita Y. ↓, Hosoya M. ↑,
46', Segawa Y. ↓, Nakama H. ↑,
46', Toshima S. ↓, Konishi Y. ↑,
66', Yamanouchi Y. ↓, Diego ↑,
75', Nakamura S. ↓, Nakajima Y. ↑,
81', 1 - 3, Hosoya M. ⚽, Koyamatsu T. (A),
82', Germain R. ↓, Germain V. ↑,
82', Kawabe H. ↓, Kato M. ↑,
82', Higashi S. ↓, Arai N. ↑,
86', Nakagawa N. ↓, Harakawa R. ↑,
90+5', Tanaka S. ↓, Arslan T. ↑,

Preview

Neutral location. Neutral location - New National Stadium.

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Kashiwa won 0.

Kashiwa is in very good shape right now (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Hiroshima has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Kashiwa won 6 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 8 matches, and goals 21:21. (average 1.1:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Kashiwa won 1 match, drew 4 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 9:15. (average 0.9:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Kashiwa Reysol - the odds 2.64 are the expected chance of winning is 35.06%, but this team recently wins 42% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Kashiwa Reysol
Japan J1 League
25.10.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Yokohama FC	2:0 ✺
18.10.25	Gamba Osaka - Kashiwa Reysol	0:5 ✺
Japan J League Cup
12.10.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Kawasaki Frontale	4:1 ✺
08.10.25	Kawasaki Frontale - Kashiwa Reysol	3:1 ✺
Japan J1 League
04.10.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Yokohama F. Marinos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 WWWLW
- Sanfrecce Hiroshima
Japan J1 League
25.10.25	Yokohama F. Marinos - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	3:0 ✺
AFC Champions League
21.10.25	Ulsan HD - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	1:0 ✺
Japan J1 League
17.10.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Tokyo	0:0 ✺
Japan J League Cup
12.10.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Yokohama FC	2:1 ✺
08.10.25	Yokohama FC - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.4 LLTWW

Latest Head to Head

Japan J1 League
23.09.25	Kashiwa Reysol - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:0
16.03.25	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kashiwa Reysol	1:1
25.08.24	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kashiwa Reysol	2:0
22.06.24	Kashiwa Reysol - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:1
26.08.23	Kashiwa Reysol - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	0:0
19.03.23	Sanfrecce Hiroshima - Kashiwa Reysol	1:0
14.08.22	Kashiwa Reysol - Sanfrecce Hiroshima	2:3

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