Match Info

Persha Liga - Round 7

Date: 26 May 2026, Tuesday

Location: Chernihiv Stadium (Černihiv)


	Chernihiv		Metalist Kharkiv

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.5	3.1	2.5
	2.22	2.98	3.25
	2.18	2.81	3.36
	2.06	3.1	3.6	Watch
	2.2	2.88	3.1
	2.26	3.14	3.25	Watch
	2.5	3.25	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↓ (2.5)	3.04 ↓ (3.2)	3.08 ↑ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chernihiv
40.2%

Draw
30.1%

Metalist Kharkiv
29.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

36%

28.1%

36%

Our Initial ML Estimation

34.9%

27.3%

37.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chernihiv has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.2%)

Metalist Kharkiv has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Metalist Kharkiv might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chernihiv than the current prediction. (-5.3%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chernihiv that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Metalist Kharkiv than the current prediction. (+7.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Metalist Kharkiv could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	50%	50%

Chernihiv - Metalist Kharkiv Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Metalist will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Tatarenko M. (C) 13. Bezgubchenko D. 20. Fateev D. 12. Kartushov Y. 10. Koydan V. 7. Myronenko D. 11. Novikov A. 33. Porokhnya A. 6. Shalfeev Y. 3. Shumylo M. 38. Shushko P.	25. Rybak V. (C) 10. Bagachanskyi M. 24. Fedoriv V. 19. Kaydalov D. 7. Lutsiv P. 2. Mizyuk O. 98. Orikhovskyi M. 5. Pidruchnyi D. 31. Porokh B. 33. Sherstyuk Y. 11. Tsvirenko O.
Substitutes
8. Bybik A. 17. Chaban V. 24. Dmytrovych D. D. 99. Herasymenko D. (G) 9. Kulyk D. 55. Romanchenko A. 88. Stolyarchuk A. 25. Volskyi D. 23. Zenchenko O.	39. Gryshchenko I. 27. Isaenko Y. 9. Lutsiv V. 38. Palyanychka K. 35. Pletnyov P. (G) 32. Shakhmayev M. 30. Shapovalov I. 6. Teplyakov D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
13', 1 - 0, Zenchenko O. ⚽,
18', Bezgubchenko D. 🟨,
31', Orikhovskyi M. 🟨,
33', Prykhodko D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
59', 1 - 1, Prykhodko D. ⚽,
69', Serdyuk M. ↓, Teplyakov N. ↑,
80', Myronenko D. ↓, Stolyarchuk A. ↑,
82', Prykhodko D. ↓, Goryainov O. ↑,
84', 1 - 2, Kaydalov D. ⚽,
86', Koydan V. 🟨,

Preview

We will watch a tense game between outsiders (ranked 14 in the zone Persha Liga (Relegation) and 15 in the zone Relegation ~ Druha Liga).

Chernihiv has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Metalist is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Recently, Chernihiv has had a series of away games.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Chernihiv won 1 match, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 3:2. (average 1.5:1).

Including home match between the teams, Chernihiv won 1 match, drew 0 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:1.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
9	Metalist Kharkiv	10	4	2	4	11:11	0	14
14	FC Chernihiv	9	1	4	4	10:14	-4	7

Last Results with these Odds

Metalist Kharkiv - the odds 2.5 are the expected chance of winning is 35.96%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Chernihiv
Ukrainian Persha Liga
23.05.26	Chernihiv - Inhulets	1:2 ✺
Ukrainian Cup
20.05.26	Chernihiv - Dynamo Kyiv	1:3 ✺
Ukrainian Persha Liga
09.05.26	Chernihiv - Chornomorets Odesa	2:2 ✺
02.05.26	UCSA - Chernihiv	0:2 ✺
26.04.26	Chernihiv - Vorskla Poltava	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.8 LLTWL
- Metalist Kharkiv
Ukrainian Persha Liga
23.05.26	Metalist Kharkiv - UCSA	2:0 ✺
17.05.26	Vorskla Poltava - Metalist Kharkiv	1:1 ✺
09.05.26	Metalist Kharkiv - Podillya Khmelnytskyi	3:0 ✺
02.05.26	Nyva Ternopil - Metalist Kharkiv	2:0 ✺
25.04.26	Metalist Kharkiv - Feniks-Mariupol	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 WTWLT

Latest Head to Head

Ukrainian Persha Liga
07.04.26	Metalist Kharkiv - Chernihiv	2:1
25.05.24	Metalist Kharkiv - Chernihiv	1:1
21.04.24	Chernihiv - Metalist Kharkiv	2:1

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