Match Info

Persha Liga - Round 11

Date: 13 October 2025, Monday

Location: Chernihiv Stadium (Černihiv)


	Chernihiv		UCSA

	1	X	2
	2.62	3.25	2.52
	1.58	3.83	5.68	Watch
	2.55	3.15	2.48
	2.44	3.2	2.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.3 ↓ (3.08)	3.36 ↑ (2.95)	3.33 ↑ (2.32)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chernihiv
42.1%

Draw
28.8%

UCSA
29.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29.7%

31%

39.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

30.4%

30.3%

38.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chernihiv has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+12.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chernihiv's performance.

UCSA has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.3%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and UCSA might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chernihiv than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chernihiv that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UCSA than the current prediction. (+9.4%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that UCSA could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Chernihiv - UCSA Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chernihiv (votes: 1 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
35. Tatarenko M. (C) 13. Bezgubchenko D. 8. Bybik A. 20. Fateev D. 12. Kartushov Y. 9. Kulyk D. 7. Myronenko D. 33. Porokhnya A. 6. Shalfeev Y. 3. Shumylo M. 38. Shushko P.	1. Barantsov K. (G) 4. Balaba N. 98. Guerreiro V. 8. Kireev A. 17. Pedro Acacio 3. Sydorenko D. 89. Synyogub O. (C) 7. Sytnykov M. 78. Wendell 5. Yevdokymov A. 6. Yuvkhimets R.
Substitutes
17. Chaban V. 24. Dmytrovych D. D. 2. Galstyan E. 99. Herasymenko D. (G) 10. Koydan V. 11. Novikov A. 55. Romanchenko A. 22. Roshchynskyi O. (G) 77. Serdyuk M. 88. Stolyarchuk A. 25. Volskyi D. 23. Zenchenko O.	73. Castro P. 41. Icaro 77. Khovayko K. 99. Kovalev A. (G) 18. Lebedev S. 21. Matheus Fogo 10. Matheusinho 81. Popravka Y. 12. Postemskyi O. (G) 11. Romarinho 27. Vasin M. 9. Zadnipryanets B.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
16', 1 - 0, Kulyk D. ⚽,
25', Pedro Acacio ↓, Castro P. ↑,
34', Yevdokymov A. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', 2 - 0, Shalfeev Y. ⚽,
64', Kireev A. ↓, Khovayko K. ↑,
64', Wendell ↓, Romarinho ↑,
66', Porokhnya A. ↓, Chaban V. ↑,
66', Myronenko D. ↓, Zenchenko O. ↑,
68', 🟨,
78', Bezgubchenko D. ↓, Volskyi D. ↑,
88', Kulyk D. ↓, Novikov A. ↑,

Preview

The game between a mid-table team and the outsider (ranked 14 in the zone Persha Liga (Relegation) and 10).

Chernihiv is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

UCSA's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

The teams have not played against each other recently.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC Chernihiv
Ukrainian Persha Liga
08.10.25	Vorskla Poltava - Chernihiv	0:1 ✺
04.10.25	Chernihiv - Podillya Khmelnytskyi	1:1 ✺
28.09.25	Nyva Ternopil - Chernihiv	2:0 ✺
Ukrainian Cup
17.09.25	Chernihiv - Kryvbas	1:2 penalties ✺
Ukrainian Persha Liga
12.09.25	Bukovyna Chernivtsi - Chernihiv	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WTLLL
- UCSA Kyiv
Ukrainian Persha Liga
09.10.25	UCSA - Prykarpattia Ivano-Frankivsk	3:1 ✺
05.10.25	Viktoriya Sumy - UCSA	2:0 ✺
27.09.25	UCSA - Probiy Horodenka	0:0 ✺
19.09.25	Ahrobiznes Volochysk - UCSA	1:0 ✺
14.09.25	UCSA - Inhulets	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WLTLT

Chernihiv - UCSA: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide