Match Info

Russian Cup - Regions Path - Semi-finals

Date: 16 October 2025, Thursday

Location: Centralnyy (Novorossiysk)

Where to Watch on TV:


Russia	Match! Premier, Match TV, Sportbox.ru


	Chernomorets Novorossiysk		Kuban-Kholding

	1	X	2
	1.86	3.3	4.04
	1.85	3.29	4.44	Watch
	1.47	4	5.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.73 ↑ (1.56)	3.53 ↓ (4.42)	4.73 ↓ (6.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chernomorets Novorossiysk
53.9%

Draw
26.4%

Kuban-Kholding
19.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.9%

22.2%

14.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.4%

21.4%

14.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chernomorets Novorossiysk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chernomorets Novorossiysk's form might have worsened.

Kuban-Kholding has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.8%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (+11.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chernomorets Novorossiysk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Kuban-Kholding than the current prediction. (-5.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Kuban-Kholding, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Kuban Kholding Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. Chernomorets will win (votes: 4 - 80%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 20%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Chernomorets (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1 - Chernomorets (2.15) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Chernomorets (votes: 3 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:-1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
32. Matyusha M. (G) 11. Gurchenko D. (C) 31. Kasimov T. 5. Krachkovskii A. 44. Kukharchuk I. 25. Lozhkin V. 90. Sutugin I. 59. Syshchenko M. 81. Tonevitskiy E. 77. Zarypbekov E. 17. Zhilkin G.	15. Stenyakin A. (G) 13. Babayan R. 44. Dashaev A. (C) 11. Dmitriev M. 10. Fadeev N. 20. Kartashov D. 21. Orazaev I. 18. Popov O. 14. Sapozhnikov I. 2. Tagiev N. 27. Zakharov I.
Substitutes
9. Aliev S. 15. Alikberov T. 7. Antonov A. 4. Kirsch I. 99. Morozov K. 3. Pliev Z. 19. Pomeshkin K. 13. Puzanov S. 69. Rodionov I. 73. Shtepa M. (G) 8. Tarba Z. 10. Zhigulev I.	19. Grechkin A. 16. Kopylov S. (G) 8. Kotov D. 26. Marinchenko D. 23. Mikhailov D. 24. Sergienko I. 22. Smirnov M. 17. Solovjev D. 12. Veselovskiy R. 30. Vitulin D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Popov O. ⚽,
30', Zakharov I. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Sutugin I. ↓, Pomeshkin K. ↑,
46', Krachkovskii A. ↓, Tarba Z. ↑,
58', Babayan R. 🟨,
62', Lozhkin V. ↓, Antonov A. ↑,
62', Kasimov T. ↓, Aliev S. ↑,
62', Kukharchuk I. ↓, Rodionov I. ↑,
64', Orazaev I. ↓, Kotov D. ↑,
64', Popov O. ↓, Mikhailov D. ↑,
67', Kotov D. 🟨,
69', Tarba Z. 🟨,
72', 1 - 1, Pomeshkin K. ⚽,
78', Fadeev N. ↓, Sergienko I. ↑,
78', Sapozhnikov I. ↓, Smirnov M. ↑,
85', Kartashov D. ↓, Grechkin A. ↑,
89', 1 - 2, Grechkin A. ⚽,

Preview

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chernomorets won 4.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Recently, Chernomorets has had a series of away games.

Recently, Kuban-Kholding has had a series of home games.

In this match, Chernomorets is the obvious favorite.

In the last 7 head-to-head matches, Chernomorets won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 17:4. (average 2.4:0.6).

Including home matches between the teams, Chernomorets won 4 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 13:3. (average 2.6:0.6).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chernomorets Novorossiysk
Russian FNL
12.10.25	Rotor - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	Torpedo Moscow - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:4 ✺
29.09.25	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - KAMAZ	1:0 ✺
Russian Cup
24.09.25	Astrakhan - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:2 ✺
Russian FNL
21.09.25	SKA Khabarovsk - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.9 LWWWL
- Kuban-Kholding
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 1
11.10.25	Kuban-Kholding - FC Sevastopol	0:0 ✺
04.10.25	Kuban-Kholding - Nart Cherkessk	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Dynamo Stavropol - Kuban-Kholding	0:0 ✺
Russian Cup
24.09.25	Kuban-Kholding - Volga Ulyanovsk	3:2 penalties ✺
Russian FNL 2 Division B Group 1
20.09.25	Kuban-Kholding - Rostov 2	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 14 TLTWT

Latest Head to Head

Russian FNL 2 Group 1
07.05.23	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Kuban-Kholding	4:1
01.10.22	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Kuban-Kholding	3:0
03.04.22	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Kuban-Kholding	3:1
08.09.21	Kuban-Kholding - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:3
20.03.21	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Kuban-Kholding	1:1
23.08.20	Kuban-Kholding - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:1
Russian Cup
30.07.18	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Kuban-Kholding	2:0

Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Kuban-Kholding: Predictions, Live Scores & TV Guide