Match Info

RUSSIA: FNL - ROUND 12

Date: 1 October 2023, Sunday

Location: Tsentralnyi Stadion (Astrakhan)

Referee: Anopa A. (Rus)


	Chernomorets Novorossiysk		Volgar Astrakhan

	1	X	2
	2.5	2.91	3.13
	2.34	3.18	2.97	Watch
	2.3	3.05	2.95
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.38 ↑ (1.86)	3.05 ↓ (3.5)	3.02 ↓ (3.9)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chernomorets Novorossiysk
38.9%

Draw
30.4%

Volgar Astrakhan
30.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

49.8%

26.5%

23.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

51.4%

25.7%

23%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chernomorets Novorossiysk has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chernomorets Novorossiysk's form might have worsened.

Volgar Astrakhan has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Volgar Astrakhan's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chernomorets Novorossiysk than the current prediction. (+12.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chernomorets Novorossiysk, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Volgar Astrakhan than the current prediction. (-7.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Volgar Astrakhan, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Volgar Astrakhan Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Frolkin D. (G) 7. Antonov A. 24. Budagyan Y. 17. Fomin D. 5. Garaev V. (C) 77. Korobov D. 4. Kumburovic N. 14. Maklakov I. 8. Panamarev N. 19. Rudenko V. 11. Saaduev S.	71. Odoevski D. (G) 44. Anisimov A. 43. Gilyazetdinov A. 22. Khomukha I. 8. Klenkin D. 17. Lesnikov D. 14. Poluboyarinov D. 28. Proshkin E. 55. Shlyakov E. 31. Tkachuk D. (C) 9. Zhamaletdinov T.
Substitutes
9. Abakarov M. 96. Adaev V. 25. Basyrov S. 90. Deljkin A. 47. Filippov M. (G) 15. Grechkin A. 27. Gurchenko D. 3. Khagur R. 13. Kirilenko V. 21. Klimov N. 30. Krasilnichenko O. 16. Tyurin M. (G)	5. Atabayev E. 19. Kosarev K. 70. Malyarov N. 42. Shaikhtdinov D. 90. Shakuro P. 20. Smirnov D. 99. Smirnov O. (G) 23. Ushatov K. 58. Zuev I.
Coaches
Zyryanov K.	Pavlov S.

Preview

One and the other team get a very uncertain game.

Recently Chernomorets have a series of guest games.

Chernomorets will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 4 head-to-head matches Chernomorets won 0 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 2-6.

Including matches at home between the teams Chernomorets won 0 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 0-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chernomorets Novorossiysk
Russian Cup
27.09.23	Biolog-Novokubansk Progress - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:2 ✺
Russian FNL
23.09.23	Yenisey Krasnoyarsk - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	3:1 ✺
17.09.23	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Sokol Saratov	5:3 ✺
09.09.23	Shinnik - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	2:1 ✺
03.09.23	Akron Tolyatti - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.7 WLWLT
- FC Volgar Astrakhan
Russian Cup
27.09.23	Znamya Truda - Volgar Astrakhan	1:3 ✺
Russian FNL
23.09.23	Volgar Astrakhan - Arsenal Tula	1:1 ✺
17.09.23	Leningradets - Volgar Astrakhan	0:0 ✺
10.09.23	SKA Khabarovsk - Volgar Astrakhan	1:1 ✺
02.09.23	Volgar Astrakhan - Sokol Saratov	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.6 WTTTL

Latest Head to Head

Russian PFL South
01.09.19	Volgar Astrakhan - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	2:0
12.04.19	Volgar Astrakhan - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	2:1
16.09.18	Chernomorets Novorossiysk - Volgar Astrakhan	0:1
Club Friendly
01.07.18	Volgar Astrakhan - Chernomorets Novorossiysk	1:1

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