Match Info

National League North - Round 10

Date: 26 September 2026, Saturday

Location: Haig Avenue (Southport)


	Southport		Spennymoor Town

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.4	2.88
	2.10	3.30	2.85
	2.15	3.35	2.95
	2.17	3.4	3.12
	2.2	3.49	3.05	Watch
	2.12	3.3	3.05
	2.09	3.36	3.03
	2.13	3.3	2.9
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.13 ↓ (2.14)	3.36 ↓ (3.48)	2.98 ↑ (2.93)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Southport
42.6%

Draw
27%

Spennymoor Town
30.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.7%

26.2%

31.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44.6%

25.1%

29.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southport has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.1%)

Spennymoor Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Southport than the current prediction. (+2%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Spennymoor Town than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Southport - Spennymoor Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
19', 1 - 0, McKenzie M. ⚽,
45+3', 2 - 0, Moseley A. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
74', 2 - 1, Taylor G. ⚽,
90+3', 2 - 2, Taylor G. ⚽,

Preview

A high-tension relegation six-pointer between two sides desperate to escape the danger zone (ranked 20th and 24th in the Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Southport won 1.

Recent results have been tough for Southport (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Performances by Spennymoor have been somewhat unpredictable lately (last 5 matches: 1 win).

Spennymoor may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.

Southport is expected to hold a slight competitive edge in this match.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Southport has recorded 4 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses, with a goal aggregate of 20:35 (averaging 1:1.8 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Southport against this opponent, the record stands at 2 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses, with 11:17 goals (averaging 1.1:1.7 per game).

Outrights of English National League North for now

Southport: 0.73% Spennymoor: 0.73%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
20	Southport	10	2	3	5	13:20	-7	9
23	Spennymoor	10	1	4	5	11:21	-10	7

Last Results with these Odds

Southport - the odds 2.14 are the expected chance of winning is 42.69%, but this team recently wins 50% of matches with these odds.

Spennymoor Town - the odds 2.93 are the expected chance of winning is 31.08%, but this team recently wins 71% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southport
English National League North
12.09.26	Worksop Town - Southport	2:0 ✺
08.09.26	Southport - Morecambe	2:1 ✺
05.09.26	Spalding United - Southport	2:0 ✺
31.08.26	Southport - Hereford	0:1 ✺
29.08.26	Scarborough Athletic - Southport	5:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWLLL
- Spennymoor Town
English FA Cup
19.09.26	Emley - Spennymoor Town	0:4 ✺
English National League North
12.09.26	Spennymoor Town - Macclesfield Town	1:1 ✺
08.09.26	Spennymoor Town - Spalding United	1:3 ✺
05.09.26	Hereford - Spennymoor Town	2:1 ✺
31.08.26	Spennymoor Town - Hednesford Town	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.7 WTLLT

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
10.03.26	Southport - Spennymoor Town	2:0
04.10.25	Spennymoor Town - Southport	2:0
28.01.25	Southport - Spennymoor Town	1:4
20.08.24	Spennymoor Town - Southport	2:0
06.02.24	Southport - Spennymoor Town	1:2
15.08.23	Spennymoor Town - Southport	5:1
18.04.23	Southport - Spennymoor Town	1:3

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