Match Info

National League North - Round 38

Date: 10 March 2026, Tuesday


	Merthyr Town		Chester

	1	X	2
	3	3.6	2
	3	3.6	2.05
	3.13	3.75	2.09
	3.05	3.85	2.07	Watch
	3.1	3.5	2.05
	3.08	3.48	2.05
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.06 ↑ (2.37)	3.63 ↓ (3.9)	2.05 ↓ (2.51)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Merthyr Town
30%

Draw
25.3%

Chester
44.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

39.2%

23.8%

37%

Our Initial ML Estimation

39.3%

23.9%

36.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-9.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Merthyr Town's form might have worsened.

Chester has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Chester's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Merthyr Town, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chester than the current prediction. (-7.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Chester, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Merthyr Town - Chester Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.25 - Chester (1.98) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 2.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chester (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Shrimpton F. ⚽,
11', 1 - 1, Harris M. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 1)
90+7', 1 - 2, ⚽,

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Semi~finals) and 10).

Recent performances by Merthyr have been up and down (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Chester is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 4).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Merthyr won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Outrights of English National League North for now

Chester: 10.41% Merthyr Town: 1.46%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
7	Chester	10	5	2	3	13:9	4	17
13	Merthyr Town	10	3	4	3	12:11	1	13

Last Results with these Odds

Merthyr Town - the odds 2.37 are the expected chance of winning is 39.19%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Chester - the odds 2.51 are the expected chance of winning is 37%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Merthyr Town
English National League North
07.03.26	Radcliffe - Merthyr Town	1:3 ✺
28.02.26	Merthyr Town - Buxton	1:3 ✺
24.02.26	Leamington - Merthyr Town	1:2 ✺
21.02.26	Alfreton Town - Merthyr Town	3:2 ✺
14.02.26	Merthyr Town - Bedford Town	7:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLWLW
- Chester City
English National League North
07.03.26	Chester - Darlington	2:1 ✺
28.02.26	Chester - Spennymoor Town	2:1 ✺
24.02.26	Hereford - Chester	5:2 ✺
21.02.26	Leamington - Chester	0:2 ✺
14.02.26	Chester - Buxton	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.1 WWLWW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
04.10.25	Chester - Merthyr Town	2:2

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