Match Info

ENGLAND: NATIONAL LEAGUE - ROUND 36

Date: 24 February 2024, Saturday

Location: SMH Group Stadium (Chesterfield)


	Chesterfield		Rochdale

	1	X	2
	1.22	5.75	11
	1.23	5.75	8.5
	1.22	6.5	11
	1.24	5.8	9
	1.25	5.91	11.08
	1.29	5	7.5
	1.23	6	10.2
	1.21	5.8	9.8
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.24 ↓ (1.48)	5.81 ↑ (4.4)	9.76 ↑ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 5.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chesterfield
74.7%

Draw
15.9%

Rochdale
9.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

62.8%

21.1%

16.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

65.3%

20.3%

15.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chesterfield has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Chesterfield's performance.

Rochdale has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Rochdale might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chesterfield than the current prediction. (-9.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Chesterfield that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Rochdale than the current prediction. (+6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Rochdale could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
81.8%	9.1%	9.1%

Chesterfield - Rochdale Predictions

Users Predictions: Chesterfield will win (9 of 11 users predict this - 81.82%).
Confidence interval (95%): 59.03% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Tyrer H. (G) 28. Banks O. 17. Dobra A. 9. Grigg W. 5. Grimes J. (C) 3. Horton B. 7. Mandeville L. 4. Naylor T. 8. Oldaker D. 22. Sheckleford R. 12. Williams T.	1. Brooks T. (G) 23. Armstrong F. 14. Bughail-Mellor D. 8. Clayton A. 6. Ebanks-Landell E. (C) 20. Gilmour H. 2. Gordon K. 18. Hayes C. 9. Mitchell K. 15. Nevett G. 10. Rodney D.
Substitutes
15. Hobson B. 10. Jacobs M. 35. Jones M. 21. Palmer A. 27. Quigley J.	4. East R. 40. Henderson I. 13. Keohane J. 7. Sinclair T.

Preview

During this match we will see a game between leader and a team of mid-table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ League Two and 13).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chesterfield won 2.

Chesterfield is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Rochdale is in cheap shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

In this match Chesterfield is the unquestionable favorite.

Last 16 head-to-head matches Chesterfield won 5 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 21-22.

Including matches at home between the teams Chesterfield won 2 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-7.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chesterfield
English National League
17.02.24	Bromley - Chesterfield	4:3 ✺
10.02.24	Chesterfield - Ebbsfleet United	2:2 ✺
06.02.24	Dagenham & Redbridge - Chesterfield	1:2 ✺
03.02.24	Eastleigh - Chesterfield	1:3 ✺
27.01.24	Chesterfield - Southend United	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.5 LTWWW
- Rochdale AFC
English National League
17.02.24	Rochdale - Solihull Moors	1:2 ✺
10.02.24	Altrincham - Rochdale	3:0 ✺
03.02.24	Rochdale - Dagenham & Redbridge	1:2 ✺
27.01.24	Aldershot Town - Rochdale	3:1 ✺
06.01.24	Rochdale - Kidderminster Harriers	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.8 LLLLW

Latest Head to Head

English National League
26.09.23	Rochdale - Chesterfield	1:2
English FA Cup
07.11.20	Rochdale - Chesterfield	Canceled
English League One
25.03.17	Chesterfield - Rochdale	1:3
26.12.16	Rochdale - Chesterfield	3:0
English EFL Trophy
06.12.16	Rochdale - Chesterfield	0:2
English League Cup
09.08.16	Rochdale - Chesterfield	3:1
English League One
09.01.16	Rochdale - Chesterfield	2:3

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