Match Info

Date: 14 October 2026, Wednesday


	Chicago Fire		Philadelphia Union

	1	X	2
	2.55	3.9	2.25
	2.65	3.85	2.35
	2.62	3.96	2.36	Watch
	2.68	4.11	2.41	Watch
	2.5	3.95	2.34
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.6 ↓ (2.62)	3.95 ↓ (3.96)	2.34 ↓ (2.36)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.50

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chicago Fire
36.1%

Draw
23.8%

Philadelphia Union
40.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

36.7%

24.3%

39.4%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

The chances for Chicago Fire have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

The chances for Philadelphia Union have remained the same compared to the initial analysis.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chicago Fire than the current prediction. (+0.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Philadelphia Union than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	0%

Chicago Fire - Philadelphia Union Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Preview

A direct battle for position between neighbouring teams in the table (ranked 4th in the Promotion - MLS Playoffs - 1/8 - finals and 6th in the Promotion - MLS Playoffs - 1/8 - finals).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chicago won 1.

Chicago has experienced an up-and-down run in recent matches (last 5 matches: 2 wins).

Philadelphia is in superb form heading into this trip (last 5 matches: 5 wins).

Philadelphia could enjoy a physical edge thanks to more rest days ahead of this match.

The probabilities of winning are closely matched between the two contenders.

In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Chicago has recorded 4 wins, 4 draws, and 12 losses, with a goal aggregate of 25:44 (averaging 1.3:2.2 goals per game).

Specifically in home fixtures for Chicago against this opponent, the record stands at 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 15:18 goals (averaging 1.7:2 per game).

Outrights of MLS for now

Chicago Fire: 5.37% Philadelphia Union: 2.57%

Last Results with these Odds

Chicago Fire - the odds 2.62 are the expected chance of winning is 36.08%, but this team recently wins 25% of matches with these odds.

Philadelphia Union - the odds 2.36 are the expected chance of winning is 40.05%, but this team recently wins 33% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chicago Fire
MLS
06.10.26	Chicago Fire - Vancouver Whitecaps	3:1 ✺
26.09.26	Charlotte - Chicago Fire	0:1 ✺
19.09.26	Nashville SC - Chicago Fire	3:0 ✺
13.09.26	Chicago Fire - New England Revolution	1:2 ✺
09.09.26	Chicago Fire - Inter Miami	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 WWLLT
- Philadelphia Union
MLS
26.09.26	Philadelphia Union - Orlando City	4:2 ✺
19.09.26	Sporting Kansas City - Philadelphia Union	3:4 ✺
13.09.26	San Diego - Philadelphia Union	0:5 ✺
09.09.26	Philadelphia Union - Cincinnati	5:0 ✺
05.09.26	Philadelphia Union - CF Montréal	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.9 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

MLS
21.03.26	Philadelphia Union - Chicago Fire	1:2
01.11.25	Chicago Fire - Philadelphia Union	0:3
26.10.25	Philadelphia Union - Chicago Fire	3:2 penalties
23.08.25	Philadelphia Union - Chicago Fire	4:0
25.06.25	Chicago Fire - Philadelphia Union	0:1
03.07.24	Chicago Fire - Philadelphia Union	4:3
24.02.24	Philadelphia Union - Chicago Fire	2:2

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