Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 15

Date: 25 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)

Referee: Ortiz M. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video
Usa	NBC Universo, Peacock TV, SiriusXM FC, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW


	Chivas Guadalajara		Atlas

	1	X	2
	1.45	4.5	6	Watch
	1.46	4.45	6.4	Watch
	1.55	4.25	5.63
	1.45	4.33	6.54	Watch
	1.39	4.6	6.4
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.46 ↑ (1.43)	4.43 ↓ (4.65)	6.19 ↑ (6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chivas Guadalajara
63.9%

Draw
21.1%

Atlas
15.1%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.7%

19.9%

15.4%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.6%

19.3%

15%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chivas Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Atlas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+2.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (-0.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Chivas Guadalajara - Atlas Predictions

Users Predictions: 4 users predict this event. Guadalajara will win (votes: 4 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Guadalajara (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH 0 - Atlas (4.52) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 3 Selected Experts predict this event. Guadalajara (votes: 2 - 66.7%). Atlas (votes: 1 - 33.3%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rangel R. (G) 19. Campillo Del Campo D. 17. Romo L. (C) 21. Castillo J. 28. Gonzalez F. 6. Govea O. 25. Alvarado R. 226. Sandoval S. 10. Alvarez E. 5. Gonzalez B. 34. Gonzalez A.	12. Vargas C. (G) 13. Aguirre G. 5. Matheus Doria 4. Mora A. 3. Gustavo Ferrareis 15. Ramirez P. 26. Rocha A. (C) 199. Hernandez S. 11. Gonzalez D. 8. Garcia M. E. 32. Djurdjevic U.
Substitutes
23. Aguirre D. 26. Camberos H. 24. Gomez M. 15. Gutierrez E. 31. Padilla Y. 9. Pulido A. 3. Sepulveda G. 4. Tapias M. 13. Whalley O. (G) 29. Wilke T.	19. Aguirre E. 7. Coccaro M. 10. del Prete G. 58. Gonzalez A. 44. Pier R. 16. Ramirez A. 14. Ramos C. (G) 27. Rios De Alba V. H. 25. Rodriguez J. 218. San Martin J.
Coaches
Milito G.	Cocca D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (3 - 0)
10', 1 - 0, Gonzalez A. ⚽, Alvarez E. (A),
26', Ramirez P. 🟨,
27', 2 - 0, Romo L. ⚽,
29', 3 - 0, Gonzalez A. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', 4 - 0, Gonzalez A. ⚽, Alvarado R. (A),
57', Gonzalez A. ↓, Wilke T. ↑,
63', 4 - 1, Garcia M. E. ⚽, Djurdjevic U. (A),
65', Aguirre G. 🟨,
66', Sandoval S. ↓, Padilla Y. ↑,
74', Alvarez E. ↓, Aguirre D. ↑,
74', Alvarado R. ↓, Gutierrez E. ↑,
74', Govea O. ↓, Tapias M. ↑,
78', Rocha A. ↓, Coccaro M. ↑,
78', Gonzalez D. ↓, Aguirre E. ↑,
87', Ramirez P. ↓, Rios De Alba V. H. ↑,
87', Garcia M. E. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a game between evenly matched mid-table sides (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: ) and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 1.

Guadalajara is showing really good form (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Atlas has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Atlas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Guadalajara is the team to beat.

There will not play in Guadalajara: Ledezma R. (Red Card) Mozo A. (Knee Injury) Sepulveda L. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Atlas: Cruz C. (Knee Injury) Lozano J. (Muscle Injury) Ortega E. (Suspended) Zaldivar E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Guadalajara: Gonzalez B. (Injury)

We predict that Guadalajara will win today's game, with odds of 1.51.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 26:20. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Guadalajara won 5 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 16:12. (average 1.5:1.1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chivas Guadalajara
Mexican Liga MX
22.10.25	Querétaro - Chivas Guadalajara	1:0 ✺
18.10.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Mazatlan	2:0 ✺
05.10.25	UNAM - Chivas Guadalajara	1:2 ✺
27.09.25	Puebla - Chivas Guadalajara	0:2 ✺
23.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Necaxa	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.2 LWWWW
- Club Atlas
Mexican Liga MX
22.10.25	Atlas - Club León	2:0 ✺
17.10.25	Atlético San Luis - Atlas	2:0 ✺
03.10.25	Atlas - Juárez	3:1 ✺
27.09.25	Atlas - Necaxa	3:2 ✺
24.09.25	Tigres UANL - Atlas	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WLWWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
19.04.25	Atlas - Chivas Guadalajara	1:1
Club Friendly
27.12.24	Atlas - Chivas Guadalajara	0:0
Mexican Liga MX
21.11.24	Chivas Guadalajara - Atlas	1:2
05.10.24	Chivas Guadalajara - Atlas	2:3
27.04.24	Atlas - Chivas Guadalajara	0:1
Club Friendly
24.03.24	Chivas Guadalajara - Atlas	0:0
Mexican Liga MX
07.10.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Atlas	4:1

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