Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 5 October 2025, Sunday

Location: Estadio Olímpico Universitario (Mexico City)

Referee: Quintero D. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Canal 5, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	CBS Sports Network, Paramount+, TUDN App, TUDN, Univision


	UNAM		Chivas Guadalajara

	1	X	2
	2.2	3.2	3.3	Watch
	2.25	3.4	3
	2.32	3.15	3.05
	2.36	3.29	3.28
	2.23	3.34	3.07	Watch
	2.24	3.3	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.27 ↑ (2.21)	3.28 ↓ (3.3)	3.14 ↓ (3.27)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

UNAM
41.5%

Draw
28.6%

Chivas Guadalajara
29.9%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42.6%

28.6%

28.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

44%

29.5%

27.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

UNAM has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.1%)

Chivas Guadalajara has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for UNAM than the current prediction. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (-2%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
40%	40%	20%

UNAM - Chivas Guadalajara Predictions

Users Predictions: 5 users predict this event. UNAM will win (votes: 2 - 40%). Guadalajara will win (votes: 1 - 20%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 40%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - Guadalajara (1.94) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Guadalajara (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Navas K. (C) 2. Bennevendo P. 6. Nathan Silva 215. Azuaje A. 77. Angulo A. 22. Medina A. 28. Carrasquilla A. 45. Vite P. 8. Caicedo J. 17. Ruvalcaba J. 11. Macias J.	1. Rangel R. (G) 21. Castillo J. 17. Romo L. (C) 5. Gonzalez B. 6. Govea O. 28. Gonzalez F. 10. Alvarez E. 19. Campillo Del Campo D. 37. Ledezma R. 34. Gonzalez A. 226. Sandoval S.
Substitutes
5. Duarte R. 7. Lopez R. 30. Lopez S. 13. Monroy P. 181. Paul M. (G) 26. Rico A. 15. Rivas U. 20. Trigos S.	23. Aguirre D. 11. Brizuela I. 14. Chicharito 7. Cowell C. 24. Gomez M. 9. Pulido A. 3. Sepulveda G. 4. Tapias M. 13. Whalley O. (G) 29. Wilke T.
Coaches
Juarez E.	Milito G.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
32', Govea O. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', 1 - 0, Vite P. ⚽,
53', Gonzalez B. 🟨,
55', 1 - 1, Gonzalez A. ⚽, Alvarez E. (A),
66', Sandoval S. ↓, Tapias M. ↑,
70', Macias J. ↓, Lopez S. ↑,
70', Medina A. ↓, Trigos S. ↑,
81', Carrasquilla A. ↓, Lopez R. ↑,
81', Castillo J. ↓, Gomez M. ↑,
81', Ledezma R. ↓, Aguirre D. ↑,
82', Alvarez E. ↓, Cowell C. ↑,
87', Gonzalez F. ↓, Sepulveda G. ↑,
90', 1 - 2, Aguirre D. ⚽, Gonzalez B. (A),
90+8', Angulo A. (Pen),

Preview

This time we’ll see a clash between two mid-table teams (ranked 10 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: ) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play In: )).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 1.

Recent performances by UNAM have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Guadalajara is currently in excellent shape (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

UNAM might have a minor edge in this game.

There will not play in Guadalajara: Aguirre D. (Injury) Alvarado R. (Ankle Injury) Chicharito (Knock) Gutierrez E. (Muscle Injury) Mozo A. (Knee Injury) Sepulveda L. (Ankle Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, UNAM won 5 matches, drew 6 matches, lost 9 matches, and goals 23:29. (average 1.2:1.5).

Including home matches between the teams, UNAM won 3 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 10:7. (average 1.3:0.9).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- UNAM Pumas
Mexican Liga MX
27.09.25	Club América - UNAM	4:1 ✺
23.09.25	Juárez - UNAM	3:1 ✺
20.09.25	UNAM - Tigres UANL	1:1 ✺
12.09.25	Mazatlan - UNAM	1:4 ✺
31.08.25	UNAM - Atlas	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.1 LLTWW
- Chivas Guadalajara
Mexican Liga MX
27.09.25	Puebla - Chivas Guadalajara	0:2 ✺
23.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Necaxa	3:1 ✺
20.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	0:3 ✺
17.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Tigres UANL	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Club América - Chivas Guadalajara	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 16.7 WWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
01.03.25	UNAM - Chivas Guadalajara	0:1
02.11.24	Chivas Guadalajara - UNAM	0:0
24.02.24	Chivas Guadalajara - UNAM	3:1
03.12.23	UNAM - Chivas Guadalajara	3:0
30.11.23	Chivas Guadalajara - UNAM	1:0
11.11.23	UNAM - Chivas Guadalajara	1:0
18.02.23	UNAM - Chivas Guadalajara	1:2

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