Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 23 September 2025, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Akron (Zapopan)

Referee: Quintero M. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video
Usa	NBC Universo, Peacock TV, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW


	Chivas Guadalajara		Necaxa

	1	X	2
	1.96	3.7	3.6	Watch
	2.02	3.55	3.35	Watch
	2.08	3.65	3.68
	2.01	3.63	3.72	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.02 ↑ (1.57)	3.63 ↓ (4)	3.59 ↓ (4.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Chivas Guadalajara
47.2%

Draw
26.2%

Necaxa
26.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

57.4%

22.5%

20%

Our Initial ML Estimation

48.2%

18.9%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chivas Guadalajara has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.2%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chivas Guadalajara's form might have worsened.

Necaxa has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+6.6%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Necaxa's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chivas Guadalajara than the current prediction. (+1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
63.6%	18.2%	18.2%

Chivas Guadalajara - Necaxa Predictions

Users Predictions: 10 users predict this event. Guadalajara will win (votes: 7 - 70%). Necaxa will win (votes: 1 - 10%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 20%).
Confidence interval (95%) for Guadalajara: 41.6% – 98.4%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Guadalajara (votes: 2 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Rangel R. (G) 21. Castillo J. 19. Campillo Del Campo D. 17. Romo L. (C) 24. Gomez M. 5. Gonzalez B. 37. Ledezma R. 6. Govea O. 226. Sandoval S. 10. Alvarez E. 34. Gonzalez A.	22. Unsain E. (G) 7. Rosero K. 4. Pena A. (C) 3. Oliveros A. 16. Calderon C. 14. De Buen D. 29. Rodriguez I. 30. Monreal R. 8. Palavecino A. 15. Perez P. 9. Badaloni T.
Substitutes
11. Brizuela I. 7. Cowell C. 225. Inda C. 18. Olivas Salcedo L. A. 9. Pulido A. 3. Sepulveda G. 4. Tapias M. 13. Whalley O. (G) 29. Wilke T.	13. Andrade A. 17. Cortez R. 19. Gomez D. 5. Jacob T. 6. Jesus Alcantar 12. Jimenez L. (G) 2. Martinez E. 21. Rojas J. 24. Rossano F. 11. Sanchez R.
Coaches
Milito G.	Gago F.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 0)
27', Campillo Del Campo D. 🟨,
33', 1 - 0, Gonzalez A. ⚽, Ledezma R. (A),
44', 2 - 0, Sandoval S. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Monreal R. ↓, Rojas J. ↑,
49', 2 - 1, Calderon C. ⚽,
51', Ledezma R. ↓, Tapias M. ↑,
63', Alvarez E. ↓, Cowell C. ↑,
78', Perez P. ↓, Sanchez R. ↑,
84', Gonzalez A. ↓, Wilke T. ↑,
84', Govea O. ↓, Sepulveda G. ↑,
84', Campillo Del Campo D. ↓, Inda C. ↑,
85', Calderon C. ↓, Cortez R. ↑,
86', Rosero K. ↓, Rossano F. ↑,
90+3', Palavecino A. 🟨,
90+4', Sandoval S. 🟨,
90+4', 3 - 1, Inda C. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 3.

In recent matches, Guadalajara has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Necaxa is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

Necaxa may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Guadalajara is seen as the favorite.

There will not play in Guadalajara: Aguirre D. (Injury) Alvarado R. (Ankle Injury) Camberos H. (Injury) Gonzalez F. (Red Card) Gutierrez E. (Muscle Injury) Mozo A. (Knee Injury) Sepulveda L. (Ankle Injury)

There will not play in Necaxa: Lara E. (Elbow Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Guadalajara won 12 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 37:21. (average 1.9:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Guadalajara won 6 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 16:10. (average 1.6:1).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chivas Guadalajara
Mexican Liga MX
20.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	0:3 ✺
17.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Tigres UANL	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Club América - Chivas Guadalajara	1:2 ✺
30.08.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Cruz Azul	1:2 ✺
22.08.25	Tijuana - Chivas Guadalajara	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.3 LTWLT
- Club Necaxa
Mexican Liga MX
19.09.25	Necaxa - Puebla	1:0 ✺
12.09.25	Necaxa - Juárez	1:1 ✺
31.08.25	Tijuana - Necaxa	3:0 ✺
23.08.25	Monterrey - Necaxa	3:0 ✺
15.08.25	Necaxa - Club León	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.8 WTLLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
17.01.25	Necaxa - Chivas Guadalajara	3:2
22.10.24	Chivas Guadalajara - Necaxa	3:2
20.02.24	Necaxa - Chivas Guadalajara	1:0
13.07.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Necaxa	2:0
08.04.23	Chivas Guadalajara - Necaxa	1:0
19.08.22	Necaxa - Chivas Guadalajara	0:5
29.04.22	Necaxa - Chivas Guadalajara	0:1

Upcoming Matches