Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 10

Date: 24 September 2025, Wednesday

Location: Estadio Universitario (San Nicolás de los Garza)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, Caliente TV, Tubi TV
Usa	Estrella TV, Fox Deportes, Fox Deportes, Fox Sports 2, Fox Sports App, Foxsports.com, NBC Universo, Peacock TV, Telemundo, UNIVERSO NOW


	Tigres UANL		Atlas

	1	X	2
	1.3	5.25	7.5	Watch
	1.37	4.95	7.4	Watch
	1.34	5.55	8.53
	1.11	9.52	17.43	Watch
	1.37	5.36	7.5	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.3 ↓ (1.39)	6.13 ↑ (4.5)	9.67 ↑ (5.75)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 4.4%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Tigres UANL
74.3%

Draw
15.7%

Atlas
10%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

64.5%

19.9%

15.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

52.1%

16.1%

19.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Tigres UANL has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Tigres UANL's performance.

Atlas has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Atlas might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Tigres UANL than the current prediction. (-22.2%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Tigres UANL that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlas than the current prediction. (+9.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Atlas could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	16.7%	0%

Tigres UANL - Atlas Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Tigres UANL will win (10 of 12 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 62.24% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Tigres UANL will win (3 of 4 users predict this - 75%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Guzman N. (G) 20. Aquino J. 23. Romulo 2. Joaquim 3. Farfan M. 10. Gignac A. 8. Gorriaran F. 16. Lainez D. 11. Brunetta J. 77. Herrera O. 7. Correa A.	12. Vargas C. (G) 3. Gustavo Ferrareis 13. Aguirre G. 44. Pier R. 4. Mora A. 17. Lozano J. 11. Gonzalez D. 27. Rios De Alba V. H. 15. Ramirez P. 8. Garcia M. E. 32. Djurdjevic U.
Substitutes
27. Angulo J. 22. Antuna U. 13. Carrera A. (G) 24. Flores M. 14. Garza J. 9. Ibanez N. 19. Lopez I. 34. Parra B. 4. Sanchez J. 6. Vigon J.	19. Aguirre E. 10. del Prete G. 58. Gonzalez A. 199. Hernandez S. 5. Matheus Doria 23. Orrantia C. 16. Ramirez A. 14. Ramos C. (G) 218. San Martin J. 192. Serrato J.
Coaches
Pizarro G.	Cocca D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
5', 1 - 0, Herrera O. ⚽, Farfan M. (A),
19', Romulo 🟨,
30', Lozano J. ↓, Hernandez S. ↑,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
48', Gorriaran F. 🟨,
56', Pier R. ↓, Matheus Doria ↑,
63', 2 - 0, Lainez D. ⚽,
66', Garcia M. E. ↓, Aguirre E. ↑,
66', Gonzalez D. ↓, Gonzalez A. ↑,
70', Herrera O. ↓, Flores M. ↑,
70', Gorriaran F. ↓, Parra B. ↑,
79', Lainez D. ↓, Antuna U. ↑,
79', Gignac A. ↓, Ibanez N. ↑,
83', Joaquim ↓, Angulo J. ↑,

Preview

One of the top teams will play against one of the outsiders (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 16).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tigres won 2.

Tigres has been quite unpredictable recently (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Atlas is currently in poor form (in the last 5 games, wins – 0).

Atlas may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

Recently, Tigres has had a series of away games.

In this match, Tigres is the undeniable favorite.

There will not play in Tigres: Gignac A. (Knee Injury)

There will not play in Atlas: Cruz C. (Knee Injury) Ortega E. (Suspended) Zaldivar E. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Tigres: Guerrero R. (Ankle Injury) Tapia F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Atlas: Aguirre E. (Muscle Injury) Rodriguez J. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Tigres won 10 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 28:19. (average 1.4:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Tigres won 7 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 0 matches, and goals 19:8. (average 1.9:0.8).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Tigres UANL
Mexican Liga MX
20.09.25	UNAM - Tigres UANL	1:1 ✺
17.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Tigres UANL	0:0 ✺
13.09.25	Tigres UANL - Club León	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Santos Laguna - Tigres UANL	0:1 ✺
23.08.25	Mazatlan - Tigres UANL	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 4.2 TTTWT
- Club Atlas
Mexican Liga MX
19.09.25	Mazatlan - Atlas	1:1 ✺
13.09.25	Atlas - Santos Laguna	2:2 ✺
31.08.25	UNAM - Atlas	1:0 ✺
24.08.25	Atlas - Club América	2:4 ✺
17.08.25	Querétaro - Atlas	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.5 TTLLT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
08.02.25	Tigres UANL - Atlas	2:1
12.07.24	Atlas - Tigres UANL	1:1
24.02.24	Tigres UANL - Atlas	1:1
17.09.23	Atlas - Tigres UANL	2:0
18.02.23	Atlas - Tigres UANL	0:1
Copa por Mexico
17.12.22	Tigres UANL - Atlas	1:0
Mexican Liga MX
23.07.22	Tigres UANL - Atlas	2:0

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