Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Round 10

Date: 7 March 2026, Saturday

Location: Estadio Ruben Deras (Choloma)

Where to Watch on TV:


Honduras	Deportes TV


	Choloma		Motagua

	1	X	2
	5.35	4.05	1.47
	5.48	4.01	1.48
	5.77	4.34	1.5	Watch
	5.75	3.8	1.44
	6.08	4.05	1.45
Avarage Now (Initially)	5.69 ↑ (5.51)	4.05 ↓ (4.7)	1.47 ↑ (1.44)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Choloma
15.9%

Draw
22.4%

Motagua
61.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

16.7%

19.5%

63.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

16.1%

18.8%

66.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Choloma has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.8%)

Motagua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Choloma than the current prediction. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motagua than the current prediction. (+4.6%)

Choloma - Motagua Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
24. Pineda J. (G) 13. Aceituno M. 2. Barrios B. 50. Bermudez J. 9. Borja E. 23. Castillo H. 12. Chavez Y. 4. Cordova J. 5. Franco J. 18. Quejada J. (C) 8. Rocha D.	22. Ortiz L. (G) 11. Da Silva R. L. 19. De Olivera R. 5. Discua O. 10. Gomez R. 27. Macias J. 35. Melendez C. 8. Melendez D. 17. Portillo J. 34. Sacaza G. 12. Santos M. (C)
Substitutes
33. Aguilar D. 11. Alvarado M. 17. Anaya L. 20. Arias I. 28. Barrios J. 15. Canales C. 10. Canales J. 27. Fernandez C. 22. Florez E. 25. Padilla G. 26. Ramos G. 6. Suazo J.	14. Barrios A. 2. Cacho P. 15. Hernandez A. 29. John Kleber 25. Licona M. (G) 77. Mejia C. 56. Palma C. 23. Reyes A. 26. Santamaria L. 7. Serrano J. 4. Vega L. 6. Zapata R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
3', 0 - 1, De Olivera R. ⚽,
14', Melendez C. 🟨,
28', Melendez C. ↓, Santamaria L. ↑,
32', Ortiz L. 🟨,
32', Santos M. 🟨,
34', 1 - 1, Borja E. (Penalty Awarded),
44', Franco J. 🟨,
44', Quejada J. 🟨,
45+3', Borja E. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 2)
46', Franco J. ↓, Florez E. ↑,
58', 1 - 2, Gomez R. (Penalty Awarded),
62', Aceituno M. ↓, Anaya L. ↑,
65', Da Silva R. L. ↓, Reyes A. ↑,
66', Macias J. ↓, Mejia C. ↑,
74', Barrios B. 🟨,
77', Bermudez J. ↓, Alvarado M. ↑,
77', Borja E. ↓, Fernandez C. ↑,
79', 1 - 3, Mejia C. ⚽,
80', Sacaza G. 🟨,
84', De Olivera R. ↓, John Kleber ↑,
85', Sacaza G. ↓, Cacho P. ↑,
85', Rocha D. ↓, Canales J. ↑,

Preview

Let's watch a game between a leader and an outsider (ranked 10 and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Triangulares: )).

Choloma has been struggling lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Motagua is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

Motagua may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Motagua is considered a favorite.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, Choloma won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 1:5. (average 0.5:2.5).

Including home match between the teams, Choloma won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:3.

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Motagua	8	4	1	3	11:8	3	13
10	Choloma	8	2	1	5	6:8	-2	7

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- CD Choloma
Honduras Liga Nacional
25.02.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Choloma	3:0 ✺
21.02.26	Choloma - Victoria La Ceiba	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Real España - Choloma	2:1 ✺
11.02.26	Choloma - Olancho	0:1 ✺
08.02.26	Platense - Choloma	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.2 LWLLT
- CD Motagua
Honduras Liga Nacional
01.03.26	Motagua - Olancho	1:1 ✺
25.02.26	Juticalpa - Motagua	1:2 ✺
22.02.26	Olimpia Tegucigalpa - Motagua	0:1 ✺
15.02.26	Motagua - CD Marathón	1:1 ✺
11.02.26	Génesis PN - Motagua	0:5 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TWWTW

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
09.11.25	Motagua - Choloma	2:1
10.09.25	Choloma - Motagua	0:3

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