Match Info

Liga Nacional - Clausura - Triangulares - Round 1

Date: 3 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Roberto Suazo Cordova (La Paz)


	Génesis PN		Motagua

	1	X	2
	3.95	3.5	1.75
	3.86	3.44	1.73
	4.2	3.51	1.83	Watch
	4	3.3	1.75
	4.41	3.88	1.62	Watch
	4.2	3.8	1.64
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.1 ↓ (4.2)	3.57 ↓ (3.8)	1.72 ↑ (1.64)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Génesis PN
22.1%

Draw
25.3%

Motagua
52.6%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

21.4%

23.7%

54.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

19.5%

26%

60.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Génesis PN has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.7%)

Motagua has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Génesis PN than the current prediction. (-2.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Motagua than the current prediction. (+7.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Motagua could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Génesis PN - Motagua Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Balanta R. A. (G) 32. Gabriel Araujo 15. Maldonado E. 33. Melendez D. 7. Miranda J. 14. Mosquera J. 17. Nunez D. 27. Paz J. 66. Perez K. 22. Sander R. 13. Tejeda A. (C)	22. Ortiz L. (G) 19. De Olivera R. 5. Discua O. 10. Gomez R. 35. Melendez C. 17. Portillo J. C. 23. Reyes A. 11. Romario 34. Sacaza G. 12. Santos M. (C) 7. Serrano J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
31', 0 - 1, Gomez R. ⚽,
31', Paz J. 🟨,
37', Nunez D. 🟨,
45+2', Gomez R. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 0)
49', Maldonado E. 🟨,
59', 1 - 1, Gabriel Araujo ⚽,
64', Miranda J. ↓, Felix B. ↑,
69', Serrano J. ↓, Mejia C. ↑,
69', Gomez R. ↓, John Kleber ↑,
69', Romario ↓, Macias J. ↑,
72', Mejia C. 🟨,
72', Perez K. ↓, Fonseca C. ↑,
72', Nunez D. ↓, Riascos J. ↑,
81', Melendez D. 🟨,
83', Melendez C. ↓, Melendez D. ↑,
90+1', Tejeda A. ↓, Arzu Zapata C. I. ↑,
90+1', Melendez D. ↓, Nieto J. ↑,
90+6', Discua O. 🟨,

Preview

Motagua is Qualified for Liga Nacional (Clausura ~ Triangulares )

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Génesis won 1.

Génesis is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Motagua has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Motagua may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Motagua is seen as the favorite.

In the last 14 head-to-head matches, Génesis won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 11:34. (average 0.8:2.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Génesis won 1 match, drew 2 matches, lost 4 matches, and goals 4:15. (average 0.6:2.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
4	Motagua	8	4	1	3	11:8	3	13
5	Genesis	8	3	2	3	10:6	4	11

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Génesis Policía Nacional
Honduras Liga Nacional
30.04.26	Olancho - Génesis PN	2:2 ✺
27.04.26	Génesis PN - Victoria La Ceiba	2:0 ✺
23.04.26	Lobos UPNFM - Génesis PN	0:1 ✺
18.04.26	Génesis PN - CD Marathón	0:1 ✺
08.04.26	Platense - Génesis PN	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 26.3 TWWLW
- CD Motagua
Honduras Liga Nacional
30.04.26	Lobos UPNFM - Motagua	2:1 ✺
26.04.26	Motagua - Choloma	5:1 ✺
23.04.26	Olancho - Motagua	0:0 ✺
19.04.26	Motagua - Juticalpa	2:1 ✺
16.04.26	Victoria La Ceiba - Motagua	1:1
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.6 LWTWT

Latest Head to Head

Honduras Liga Nacional
05.04.26	Motagua - Génesis PN	3:1
11.02.26	Génesis PN - Motagua	0:5
04.10.25	Motagua - Génesis PN	4:3
26.07.25	Génesis PN - Motagua	2:1
10.05.25	Motagua - Génesis PN	5:1
07.05.25	Génesis PN - Motagua	1:4
02.04.25	Motagua - Génesis PN	4:1

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