Match Info

ENGLAND: NATIONAL LEAGUE NORTH - ROUND 28

Date: 6 February 2024, Tuesday 🏁 Finished

Location: Victory Park (Chorley) 🌤️ ...


	Chorley		Gloucester City

	1	X	2
	1.47	4	5.25
	1.5	4.33	5.5	Watch
	1.5	4	5.5
	1.55	4.21	5.78
	1.55	3.8	4.75
	1.51	4.15	5.72
	1.49	4.1	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.51 ↓ (1.55)	4.08 ↓ (4.11)	5.44 ↓ (5.66)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 5.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chorley
60.7%

Draw
22.4%

Gloucester City
16.8%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

60.6%

22.9%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.6%

22.2%

16.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chorley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.1%)

Gloucester City has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+0.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (+1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Gloucester City than the current prediction. (-0.7%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
96.2%	0%	3.8%

Chorley - Gloucester City Predictions

Users Predictions: Chorley will win (25 of 26 users predict this - 96.15%).
Confidence interval (95%): 88.75% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Preview

This match will be played by one of a leader and an outsider (ranked 5 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 22 in the zone Relegation).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Chorley won 3.

Chorley is in actual amazing shape (in the last 5 games wins - 4).

Gloucester is in unsatisfactory shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 0).

In this match Chorley is a favorite.

Our prediction for today's Chorley to win the game is with odds 1.53.

Last 15 head-to-head matches Chorley won 4 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 5 matches and goals 29-17.

Including matches at home between the teams Chorley won 3 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 18-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chorley
English National League North
03.02.24	Warrington Town - Chorley	2:1 ✺
30.01.24	Chorley - Alfreton Town	3:2 ✺
27.01.24	Chorley - Farsley	1:1 ✺
23.01.24	Chorley - Chester	0:2 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.01.24	Hythe Town - Chorley	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 LWTLW
- Gloucester City
English National League North
03.02.24	Gloucester City - King`s Lynn Town	1:2 ✺
27.01.24	Bishops Stortford - Gloucester City	1:4 ✺
23.01.24	Banbury United - Gloucester City	1:2 ✺
20.01.24	Gloucester City - Blyth Spartans	0:1 ✺
13.01.24	Chester - Gloucester City	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.9 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
07.10.23	Gloucester City - Chorley	0:2
29.04.23	Gloucester City - Chorley	4:3
24.09.22	Chorley - Gloucester City	3:0
30.04.22	Gloucester City - Chorley	1:1
04.09.21	Chorley - Gloucester City	9:0
13.02.21	Gloucester City - Chorley	1:1
10.10.20	Chorley - Gloucester City	1:2

Upcoming Matches

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chorley
English National League North
31.10.26	Spennymoor Town - Chorley	✺

Chorley - Gloucester City