Match Info

National League North - Round 16

Date: 4 November 2025, Tuesday

Location: Victory Park (Chorley)


	Chorley		Alfreton Town

	1	X	2
	1.65	3.6	4.33
	1.65	3.8	4.45
	1.66	3.85	4.55
	1.53	4.09	5.61	Watch
	1.61	3.78	4.67
	1.49	4	5.6
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.6 ↑ (1.53)	3.85 ↓ (4.09)	4.87 ↓ (5.61)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chorley
57.4%

Draw
23.8%

Alfreton Town
18.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.7%

22.7%

16.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

62.9%

21.9%

16%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chorley has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.3%)

Alfreton Town has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chorley, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Alfreton Town than the current prediction. (-2.8%)

Chorley - Alfreton Town Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
2', 0 - 1, Fewster B. ⚽,
2nd Half (0 - 0)

Preview

A mid-table team will face off against the outsider in this match (ranked 10 and 22 in the zone Relegation).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chorley won 2.

Both teams are currently in poor form.

In this match, Chorley is considered a favorite.

In the last 17 head-to-head matches, Chorley won 8 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 22:17. (average 1.3:1).

Including home matches between the teams, Chorley won 5 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 13:8. (average 1.6:1).

Last Results with these Odds

Chorley - the odds 1.53 are the expected chance of winning is 60.72%, but this team recently wins 88% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chorley
English National League North
01.11.25	Peterborough Sports - Chorley	2:1 ✺
25.10.25	Chorley - Merthyr Town	0:2 ✺
21.10.25	Southport - Chorley	1:1 ✺
18.10.25	Buxton - Chorley	3:2 ✺
11.10.25	Chorley - Oxford City	3:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 0 LLTLT
- Alfreton Town
English National League North
01.11.25	Alfreton Town - Kidderminster Harriers	1:1 ✺
25.10.25	Buxton - Alfreton Town	6:0 ✺
21.10.25	Alfreton Town - Chester	0:2 ✺
18.10.25	Peterborough Sports - Alfreton Town	1:1 ✺
04.10.25	Radcliffe - Alfreton Town	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
22.03.25	Chorley - Alfreton Town	2:0
19.10.24	Alfreton Town - Chorley	1:0
30.01.24	Chorley - Alfreton Town	3:2
06.01.24	Alfreton Town - Chorley	2:0
14.01.23	Chorley - Alfreton Town	0:0
29.08.22	Alfreton Town - Chorley	0:2
15.04.22	Chorley - Alfreton Town	1:2

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