Match Info

National League North - Round 28

Date: 24 January 2026, Saturday


	Southport		Merthyr Town

	1	X	2
	2.5	3.5	2.4
	2.52	3.55	2.38
	2.54	3.91	2.4
	2.53	3.92	2.39	Watch
	2.5	3.6	2.4
	2.58	3.61	2.48
	2.5	3.75	2.36
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.52 ↓ (2.72)	3.69 ↑ (3.52)	2.4 ↑ (2.28)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 6.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Southport
36.6%

Draw
25%

Merthyr Town
38.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

33.7%

26%

40.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

32.4%

25%

41.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Southport has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.9%)

Merthyr Town has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-1.9%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Southport than the current prediction. (-4.2%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Merthyr Town than the current prediction. (+3.5%)

Southport - Merthyr Town Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Merthyr (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
2nd Half (1 - 0)
90+4', 1 - 0, McKenzie M. ⚽,

Preview

This match will feature an outsider and one of the leaders (ranked 19 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ National League North (Play Offs: Semi~finals)).

In recent matches, Southport has shown inconsistent form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Merthyr is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

Merthyr may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, both teams have almost equal chances to win.

In the last 1 head-to-head match, Southport won 0 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 0:2.

Outrights of English National League North for now

Merthyr Town: 1.46% Southport: 0.73%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
13	Merthyr Town	10	3	4	3	12:11	1	13
20	Southport	10	2	3	5	13:20	-7	9

Last Results with these Odds

Southport - the odds 2.72 are the expected chance of winning is 33.72%, but this team recently wins 14% of matches with these odds.

Merthyr Town - the odds 2.28 are the expected chance of winning is 40.26%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Southport
English National League North
20.01.26	South Shields - Southport	1:0 ✺
17.01.26	Bedford Town - Southport	2:3 ✺
English FA Trophy
13.01.26	Eastleigh - Southport	0:2 ✺
English National League North
03.01.26	Southport - Scarborough Athletic	1:1 ✺
30.12.25	Southport - Curzon Ashton	2:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 18.1 LWWTL
- Merthyr Town
English National League North
17.01.26	Merthyr Town - Peterborough Sports	2:0 ✺
10.01.26	Worksop Town - Merthyr Town	3:5 ✺
03.01.26	Merthyr Town - King`s Lynn Town	1:0 ✺
30.12.25	Merthyr Town - Hereford	2:2 ✺
26.12.25	Oxford City - Merthyr Town	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.7 WWWTW

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
09.08.25	Merthyr Town - Southport	2:0

Upcoming Matches