Match Info

National League North - Round 27

Date: 17 January 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Deva Stadium (Chester) 🌤️ ...


	Chester		Chorley

	1	X	2
	2.38	3.4	2.45
	2.58	3.35	2.45
	2.62	3.51	2.48	Watch
	2.5	3.3	2.5
	2.39	3.28	2.59
	2.37	3.4	2.66
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.47 ↑ (2.19)	3.37 ↓ (3.72)	2.52 ↓ (2.85)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.50

The best margin for this event is 7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Chester
36.8%

Draw
27%

Chorley
36.1%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

42.4%

25%

32.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.3%

24.9%

32.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Chester has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Chester's form might have worsened.

Chorley has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Chester than the current prediction. (+5.5%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Chester, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Chorley than the current prediction. (-3.4%)

Chester - Chorley Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Chester (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
32', 1 - 0, Jones P. ⚽,
42', 1 - 1, Popoola A. ⚽,
2nd Half (2 - 2)
60', 2 - 1, Weeks D. ⚽,
77', 2 - 2, Calveley M. ⚽,
81', 3 - 2, Kelly-Evans D. ⚽,
90+4', 3 - 3, Murray-Jones G. ⚽,

Preview

Two mid-table teams will face off this time (ranked 13 and 12).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Chester won 2.

Chester is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Chorley has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Chorley may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Chester is the team to beat.

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Chester won 2 matches, drew 5 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 11:17. (average 0.9:1.4).

Including home matches between the teams, Chester won 1 match, drew 3 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 4:5. (average 0.7:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
5	Chester	13	7	2	4	17:13	4	23
11	Chorley	13	6	2	5	23:21	2	20

Last Results with these Odds

Chester - the odds 2.19 are the expected chance of winning is 42.42%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Chorley - the odds 2.85 are the expected chance of winning is 32.6%, but this team recently wins 13% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Chester City
English National League North
10.01.26	Scarborough Athletic - Chester	1:0 ✺
03.01.26	Chester - Worksop Town	0:1 ✺
30.12.25	Chester - Macclesfield Town	2:0 ✺
26.12.25	AFC Telford United - Chester	3:1 ✺
20.12.25	Chester - South Shields	1:3 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 3.1 LLWLL
- Chorley
English National League North
30.12.25	Chorley - Marine	2:1 ✺
26.12.25	Fylde - Chorley	1:0 ✺
20.12.25	Chorley - Hereford	4:2 ✺
06.12.25	Worksop Town - Chorley	1:1 ✺
29.11.25	Kidderminster Harriers - Chorley	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.2 WLWTL

Latest Head to Head

English National League North
16.08.25	Chorley - Chester	3:0
08.03.25	Chorley - Chester	3:2
23.11.24	Chester - Chorley	2:1
23.01.24	Chorley - Chester	0:2
15.08.23	Chester - Chorley	0:0
07.04.23	Chester - Chorley	0:0
27.09.22	Chorley - Chester	2:2

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