Match Info

MEXICO: LIGA DE EXPANSION MX - APERTURA - ROUND 15

Date: 28 October 2023, Saturday


	Cimarrones de Sonora		Venados

	1	X	2
				Watch
	1.95	3.3	3.3
	1.87	3.6	3.75	Watch
	2.06	3.4	3.76
	1.85	3.68	4.28
	1.8	3.6	3.6
	1.83	3.7	3.76
	1.86	3.6	3.7
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.89 ↓ (2.2)	3.55 ↑ (3.28)	3.74 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 4.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cimarrones de Sonora
49.1%

Draw
26.1%

Venados
24.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

42%

28.2%

29.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.7%

28.7%

29.3%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cimarrones de Sonora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7.1%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Cimarrones de Sonora's performance.

Venados has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cimarrones de Sonora than the current prediction. (-6.4%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Cimarrones de Sonora that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Venados than the current prediction. (+4.5%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Cimarrones de Sonora - Venados Predictions

Users Predictions: Cimarrones de Sonora will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Espinoza G. (C) 23. Reyes J. 24. Rodriguez J. 3. Manriquez S. 4. Monreal E. 20. Navarro B. 14. Monarrez F. 17. Cisneros D. 21. Lopez F. 11. Jimenez D. 7. Peralta J.	12. Alcaraz Diaz V. A. (G) 5. Luna A. 2. Casillas J. 3. Gonzalez R. 16. Rodriguez J. (C) 10. Guzman W. 7. Rosel C. 18. Amador K. 27. Garcia M. 32. Nequecaur L. 29. Lora S.
Substitutes
8. Acuna F. 28. Bernal A. 25. Castro E. (G) 5. Haro J. 16. Lopez D. 99. Melendez J. 111. Molina P. 172. Orrantia E. 19. Ortiz C. 13. Saavedra J.	35. Ballerini F. 8. Calzadilla L. 6. Cardozo N. 19. Catalan A. 17. Diaz A. 30. Dogre A. (G) 22. Mayo Canul M. A. 9. Perez M. 11. Zerecero P.
Coaches
Hernandez R.	Fernandez R.

Preview

Teams from a mid-table will play this time (ranked 8 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cimarrones de Sonora won 0.

Two teams are playing changeable.

Cimarrones de Sonora could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Cimarrones de Sonora will have a poor advantage in this game.

Last 17 head-to-head matches Cimarrones de Sonora won 5 matches, drawn 6 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 18-21.

Including matches at home between the teams Cimarrones de Sonora won 4 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 2 matches and goals 13-11.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cimarrones de Sonora
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
24.10.23	Mineros de Zacatecas - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:2 ✺
13.10.23	Cimarrones de Sonora - Correcaminos UAT	0:1 ✺
05.10.23	Tapatío - Cimarrones de Sonora	1:2 ✺
26.09.23	Cimarrones de Sonora - Atlético Morelia	3:2 ✺
19.09.23	Cancún - Cimarrones de Sonora	5:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.3 TLWWL
- Venados FC
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.10.23	Venados - Atlético Morelia	2:1 ✺
15.10.23	Venados - Dorados	4:1 ✺
04.10.23	Mineros de Zacatecas - Venados	3:0 ✺
27.09.23	Venados - Tepatitlán de Morelos	5:1 ✺
21.09.23	Atlante - Venados	2:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.8 WWLWL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
14.02.23	Venados - Cimarrones de Sonora	1:0
12.10.22	Cimarrones de Sonora - Venados	1:1
26.03.22	Cimarrones de Sonora - Venados	1:1
23.11.21	Cimarrones de Sonora - Venados	1:2
31.08.21	Venados - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:0
20.04.21	Cimarrones de Sonora - Venados	3:2 penalties
02.02.21	Venados - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:2

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