Match Info

MEXICO: LIGA DE EXPANSION MX - APERTURA - ROUND 11

Date: 26 September 2023, Tuesday

Location: Estadio Héroe de Nacozari (Hermosillo)

Referee: Rangel E. (Mex)


	Cimarrones de Sonora		Atlético Morelia

	1	X	2
				Watch
	2.15	3.3	3.2	Watch
	2.12	3.42	3.56
	2.05	3.2	3.2
	2.09	3.24	3.4
	2.15	3.25	3.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.11 ↓ (2.25)	3.28 ↓ (3.35)	3.3 ↑ (3.12)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 4.5%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Cimarrones de Sonora
43.8%

Draw
28.2%

Atlético Morelia
28%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.8%

28%

30.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.2%

29%

29.1%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Cimarrones de Sonora has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2%)

Atlético Morelia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Cimarrones de Sonora than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Atlético Morelia than the current prediction. (+1.1%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	16.7%	16.7%

Cimarrones de Sonora - Atlético Morelia Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Cimarrones de Sonora will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Atlético Morelia will win (votes: 1 - 16.7%). It will Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
30. Espinoza G. (G) 13. Saavedra J. (C) 23. Reyes J. 3. Manriquez S. 6. Arellano A. 14. Monarrez F. 8. Acuna F. 17. Cisneros D. 21. Lopez F. 11. Jimenez D. 7. Peralta J.	1. Torres A. (G) 18. Cedillo E. 4. Hernandez Gustavo 14. Trejo Castro M. A. 3. Garcia D. 5. Milke V. (C) 10. Illescas F. 13. Tecpanecatl A. 22. Galvan P. 30. Mendoza B. 29. Pedroza M.
Substitutes
33. Angulo O. 25. Castro E. (G) 5. Haro J. 16. Lopez D. 99. Melendez J. 111. Molina P. 20. Navarro B. 172. Orrantia E. 19. Ortiz C. 18. Rodriguez Leyva C. S.	17. Garcete F. 7. Islas O. 25. Navarrete D. 15. Quezada E. 35. Quiroz Villanueva C. A. 33. Sosa S. (G) 16. Torres Rodriguez R. D.
Coaches
Hernandez R.	Morales C.

Preview

During this match we will watch a battle between a team from the middle of a tournament table and a leader (ranked 9 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga de Expansion MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Cimarrones de Sonora won 1.

Recent matches Cimarrones de Sonora is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Atlético Morelia is in a very good shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 3).

Atlético Morelia could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

Recently Cimarrones de Sonora have a series of guest games.

Cimarrones de Sonora will have a mini benefit in this match.

Last 12 head-to-head matches Cimarrones de Sonora won 3 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 12-15.

Including matches at home between the teams Cimarrones de Sonora won 3 matches, drawn 2 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 9-4.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Cimarrones de Sonora
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
19.09.23	Cancún - Cimarrones de Sonora	5:2 ✺
05.09.23	Celaya - Cimarrones de Sonora	1:1 ✺
30.08.23	Atlético La Paz - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:1 ✺
23.08.23	Cimarrones de Sonora - Alebrijes de Oaxaca	4:2 ✺
18.08.23	Tlaxcala - Cimarrones de Sonora	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9 LTLWW
- Atlético Morelia
Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
20.09.23	Tlaxcala - Atlético Morelia	2:3 ✺
17.09.23	Atlético Morelia - Tapatío	0:0 ✺
10.09.23	Atlético Morelia - Atlético La Paz	2:0 ✺
01.09.23	Leones Negros UdeG - Atlético Morelia	0:0 ✺
24.08.23	Atlético Morelia - Dorados	4:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.5 WTWTW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga de Expansion MX
07.05.23	Atlético Morelia - Cimarrones de Sonora	1:0
04.05.23	Cimarrones de Sonora - Atlético Morelia	1:1
18.04.23	Cimarrones de Sonora - Atlético Morelia	0:1
28.10.22	Cimarrones de Sonora - Atlético Morelia	3:1
25.10.22	Atlético Morelia - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:0
21.08.22	Atlético Morelia - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:1
14.05.22	Atlético Morelia - Cimarrones de Sonora	2:0

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