Match Info

MLS

Date: 14 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Subaru Park (Chester, PA)

Where to Watch on TV:


Usa	MLS Season Pass
World	EA Sports FC


	Philadelphia Union		Charlotte

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.75	3.3	Watch
	1.83	3.8	3.8
	1.98	3.7	3.55	Watch
	2.11	3.8	3.46
	1.7	3.96	4.45	Watch
	1.75	3.9	4
	2.14	3.51	3.47	Watch
	1.98	3.7	3.55
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.95 ↑ (1.71)	3.77 ↓ (3.97)	3.7 ↓ (4.54)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 2.6%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Philadelphia Union
48.9%

Draw
25.3%

Charlotte
25.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.3%

23.8%

20.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

57.5%

22.9%

20%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Philadelphia Union has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.4%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Philadelphia Union's form might have worsened.

Charlotte has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Philadelphia Union than the current prediction. (+8.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Philadelphia Union, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Charlotte than the current prediction. (-5.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Charlotte, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
87.5%	6.2%	6.2%

Philadelphia Union - Charlotte Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -0.75 - Philadelphia (2.36) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Philadelphia Union will win (14 of 16 users predict this - 87.5%).
Confidence interval (95%): 71.29% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Philadelphia Union will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 10 Selected Experts predict this event. Philadelphia (votes: 9 - 90%). Charlotte (votes: 1 - 10%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
76. Rick A. (G) 15. Mbaizo O. 5. Glesnes J. 29. Makhanya O. 27. Wagner K. 11. Bedoya A. 8. Bueno J. 4. Lukic J. 16. Bender B. 20. Damiani B. 19. Vassilev I.	22. Bingham D. (G) 2. Marshall-Rutty J. 29. Malanda A. 4. Privett A. 21. Doumbia S. 16. Biel P. 8. Westwood A. 13. Bronico B. 18. Calderon Vargas K. A. 17. Toklomati I. 10. Zaha W.
Substitutes
35. Anderson M. 77. Davis E. 25. Donovan C. 12. LeFlore I. 44. Pierre N. 14. Rafanello J. 1. Semmle O. (G) 6. Sullivan C. 39. Westfield F.	11. Abada L. 28. Diani D. 1. Kahlina K. (G) 23. Petkovic N. 35. Scardina N. 25. Smalls T. 38. Tavares I. 6. Tuiloma B. 19. Williamson E.
Coaches
Carnell B.	Smith D.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
29', Calderon Vargas K. A. 🟨,
33', Makhanya O. 🟨,
33', Zaha W. 🟨,
45', Bender B. 🟨,
45+2', 1 - 0, Bueno J. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Bedoya A. ↓, Donovan C. ↑,
46', Mbaizo O. ↓, Westfield F. ↑,
57', Bueno J. ↓, Anderson M. ↑,
68', Bronico B. ↓, Williamson E. ↑,
68', Calderon Vargas K. A. ↓, Abada L. ↑,
74', Westfield F. 🟨,
77', Bender B. ↓, Rafanello J. ↑,
78', 1 - 1, Zaha W. ⚽, Marshall-Rutty J. (A),
81', Damiani B. 🟨,
89', Toklomati I. ↓, Smalls T. ↑,
90+2', Damiani B. ↓, Sullivan C. ↑,
90+8', 2 - 1, Anderson M. ⚽, Westfield F. (A),

Preview

This match features a clash between the league leader and a mid-table team (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/8~finals) and 9 in the zone Promotion ~ MLS (Play Offs: 1/16~finals)).

Philadelphia is showing really good form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Charlotte has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

Philadelphia could have a small edge in this match.

There will not play in Philadelphia: Baribo T. (Injury) Blake A. (International duty) Glavinovich I. (Knee Injury) Harriel N. (International duty) Jean Jacques D. (International duty) Sullivan Q. (International duty) Uhre M. (Injury)

There will not play in Charlotte: Agyemang P. (International duty) Berchimas N. (Foot Injury) Byrne N. (Neck Injury) Ream T. (International duty)

There are questionable in Philadelphia: Pierre N. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Charlotte: Toklomati I. (Hamstring Injury)

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Philadelphia won 2 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 4:4. (average 0.8:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Philadelphia won 2 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 2:2. (average 0.7:0.7).

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Philadelphia Union
MLS
31.05.25	FC Dallas - Philadelphia Union	0:0 ✺
28.05.25	Toronto FC - Philadelphia Union	1:2 ✺
24.05.25	Philadelphia Union - Inter Miami	3:3 ✺
US Open Cup
21.05.25	Philadelphia Union - Pittsburgh Riverhounds	4:1 ✺
MLS
17.05.25	Atlanta United - Philadelphia Union	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10.8 TWTWW
- Charlotte FC
MLS
31.05.25	Toronto FC - Charlotte	0:2 ✺
28.05.25	New York Red Bulls - Charlotte	4:2 ✺
24.05.25	Charlotte - Columbus Crew	3:2 ✺
US Open Cup
21.05.25	DC United - Charlotte	4:3 penalties ✺
MLS
17.05.25	Charlotte - Chicago Fire	1:4 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.8 WLWLL

Latest Head to Head

CONCACAF League Cup
27.07.24	Philadelphia Union - Charlotte	1:0
MLS
22.06.24	Philadelphia Union - Charlotte	0:2
25.05.24	Charlotte - Philadelphia Union	0:0
20.09.23	Charlotte - Philadelphia Union	2:2
31.05.23	Philadelphia Union - Charlotte	1:0

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