Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Round 8

Date: 28 February 2026, Saturday 🏁 Finished

Location: Estadio León (León) 🌤️ ...

Referee: Caceres V. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:

Country	Kick-Off	TV Channels
Mexico	19:06	FOX+, FOX One
South America	—	ViX Latin America


	Club León		Necaxa

	1	X	2
	2.05	3.5	3.4	Watch
	2.15	3.6	3
	2.08	3.55	3.25	Watch
	2.14	3.72	3.48
	2.03	3.74	3.43	Watch
	2.05	3.25	3
	2.09	3.56	3.56	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.08 ↓ (2.24)	3.56 ↑ (3.35)	3.3 ↑ (2.81)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.75

The best margin for this event is 2.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Club León
45.1%

Draw
26.4%

Necaxa
28.5%

Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)

40.6%

27.1%

32.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

42.1%

26.4%

31.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Club León has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+4.5%)

Necaxa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-3.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Club León than the current prediction. (-3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (+3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Club León - Necaxa Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. León will win (votes: 6 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. León (votes: 1 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
23. Garcia O. (G) 28. Ramirez D. 21. Barreiro S. (C) 5. Vegas S. 26. Reyes S. 7. Moreno I. 20. Echeverria R. 13. Arcila D. 11. Diaz I. 27. Cambindo D. 22. Vallejo N.	22. Unsain E. (G) 33. Martinez R. 4. Pena A. (C) 3. Oliveros A. 30. Monreal R. 8. Faravelli L. 6. Leyva D. 16. Calderon C. 188. Tello I. 10. Almendra A. E. 9. Badaloni T.
Substitutes
19. Alvarado A. 6. Beltran Cruz F. 16. Cortizo J. 8. Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 24. Estrada A. 18. Funes Mori R. 1. Garcia Jordan (G) 2. Gauthier V. 185. Mora C. 29. Rodriguez I.	189. Casas B. 17. Cortez R. 5. Gutierrez K. 12. Jimenez L. (G) 26. Lara E. 20. Mendez F. 197. Moreno A. 7. Rosero K. 24. Rossano F. 35. Ruiz J.
Coaches
Ambriz I.	Varini M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 1)
45+3', 0 - 1, Oliveros A. ⚽, Leyva D. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 0)
46', Almendra A. E. ↓, Ruiz J. ↑,
49', Monreal R. 🟨,
57', Oliveros A. 🟨,
58', Monreal R. ↓, Rosero K. ↑,
58', Ramirez D. ↓, Cortizo J. ↑,
59', Vallejo N. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
59', Arcila D. ↓, Beltran Cruz F. ↑,
65', 1 - 1, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ⚽,
69', Faravelli L. ↓, Gutierrez K. ↑,
78', Pena A. ↓, Rossano F. ↑,
78', Calderon C. ↓, Lara E. ↑,
86', 2 - 1, Cambindo D. (Penalty Awarded),
90+1', Diaz I. ↓, Rodriguez I. ↑,
90+1', Cambindo D. ↓, Funes Mori R. ↑,
90+7', Rossano F. 🟨,

Preview

A mid-table team and an outsider will play in this match (ranked 14 and 11).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, León won 2.

León is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Necaxa has been unpredictable lately (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).

León could have a small edge in this match.

There are questionable in León: Beltran Cruz F. (Groin Injury)

There are questionable in Necaxa: Pena A. (Injury) Rosero K. (Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, León won 14 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 35:18. (average 1.8:0.9).

Including home matches between the teams, León won 5 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:10. (average 1.6:1.1).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
6	Club Leon	14	6	4	4	21:18	3	22
17	Necaxa	14	2	4	8	16:27	-11	10

Outrights of Mexican Liga MX for now

Club Leon: 5.31%

Last Results with these Odds

Necaxa - the odds 2.81 are the expected chance of winning is 32.3%, but this team recently wins 22% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club León
Mexican Liga MX
21.02.26	Club León - Santos Laguna	2:1 ✺
14.02.26	Monterrey - Club León	1:0 ✺
07.02.26	Querétaro - Club León	2:0 ✺
31.01.26	Club León - Tigres UANL	1:2 ✺
18.01.26	UNAM - Club León	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 WLLLT
- Club Necaxa
Mexican Liga MX
21.02.26	Necaxa - Toluca	0:3 ✺
14.02.26	Juárez - Necaxa	1:2 ✺
06.02.26	Necaxa - Atlético San Luis	4:1 ✺
31.01.26	Club América - Necaxa	2:0 ✺
17.01.26	Necaxa - Atlas	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8.3 LWWLL

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
15.08.25	Necaxa - Club León	0:1
14.03.25	Necaxa - Club León	2:1
21.07.24	Club León - Necaxa	1:1
31.03.24	Necaxa - Club León	1:2
02.09.23	Club León - Necaxa	1:1
16.01.23	Club León - Necaxa	2:1
02.09.22	Necaxa - Club León	3:2

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