The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Necaxa 18.3%
Draw 24.1%
Toluca 57.7%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
24%
25.2%
50.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
23.3%
24.4%
52.3%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Necaxa has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-5.7%)
Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Necaxa's form might have worsened.
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Toluca's recent form is better than expected.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Necaxa than the current prediction. (+5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-5.4%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toluca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
14.3%
28.6%
57.1%
Necaxa - Toluca Predictions
Users Predictions:
7 users predict this event. Necaxa will win (votes: 1 - 14.3%). Toluca will win (votes: 4 - 57.1%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 28.6%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 2.75 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .
AH +1 - Necaxa (1.66) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Necaxa (votes: 1 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 0:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
22. Unsain E. (G) 33. Martinez R. 4. Pena A. 3. Oliveros A. 30. Monreal R. 6. Leyva D. 8. Faravelli L. 16. Calderon C. 188. Tello I. 10. Almendra A. E. 21. Carranza J.
22. Garcia L. (G) 19. Simon S. 2. Barbosa D. 6. Pereira F. 25. del Villar E. 20. Gallardo J. 5. Romero F. 14. Ruiz M. (C) 15. Perez P. 10. Angulo J. 26. Paulinho
Substitutes
232. Alonso R. 9. Badaloni T. 17. Cortez R. 5. Gutierrez K. 12. Jimenez L. (G) 26. Lara E. 2. Martinez E. 20. Mendez F. 24. Rossano F. 35. Ruiz J.
24. Arce F. 3. Briseno A. 4. Bruno Mendez 7. Cordova S. 29. Diaz J. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 17. Isais M. 13. Luan 27. Rossi F. 23. Virgen O.
Coaches
Varini M.
Mohamed A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 0)
9', Martinez R. 🟨,
14', Ruiz M. 🟨,
22', Monreal R. 🟨,
22', Gallardo J. 🟨,
29', Pena A. 🟨,
37', Pereira F. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 3)
52', Unsain E. 🟨,
57', Pena A. ↓, Ruiz J. ↑,
57', Almendra A. E. ↓, Lara E. ↑,
62', Perez P. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
75', Angulo J. ↓, Cordova S. ↑,
76', Carranza J. ↓, Badaloni T. ↑,
79', 0 - 1, Paulinho ⚽, Diaz J. (A),
83', 0 - 2, Paulinho ⚽, Diaz J. (A),
85', Gallardo J. ↓, Isais M. ↑,
85', Simon S. ↓, Luan ↑,
85', Paulinho ↓, Rossi F. ↑,
87', Leyva D. ↓, Gutierrez K. ↑,
87', Martinez R. ↓, Rossano F. ↑,
90+4', 0 - 3, Pereira F. ⚽, Cordova S. (A),
Preview
Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 10 and 5 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 0.
Recent performances by Necaxa have been up and down (last 5 games: 2 wins).
Toluca is in great form at the moment (in the last 5 games, wins – 2).
Necaxa may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.
In this match, Toluca is seen as the favorite.
There will not play in Necaxa: Lara E.
(Injury)
There will not play in Toluca: Vega A.
(Injury)
There are questionable in Necaxa: Rosero K.
(Injury)
There are questionable in Toluca: Castro N.
(Injury)
Helinho
(Muscle Injury)
In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Necaxa won 3 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 10 matches, and goals 20:36. (average 1:1.8).
Including home matches between the teams, Necaxa won 2 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 11:14. (average 1.2:1.6).
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Unsain E. (G) 
Martinez R. 
Oliveros A. 
Leyva D. 
Paulinho 
Luan 
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