Match Info

Liga MX - Apertura - Round 12

Date: 4 October 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio León (León)

Referee: Valle J. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Amazon Prime Video, Caliente TV, Fox Sports, Tubi TV
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN, Univision


	Club León		Toluca

	1	X	2
	4.1	4	1.71	Watch
	3.7	3.9	1.83
	4.15	3.95	1.72
	4.24	4.2	1.79
	8.04	6.16	1.29	Watch
	3.98	4.05	1.74	Watch
	3.85	4	1.78
Avarage Now (Initially)	4.58 ↑ (3.2)	4.32 ↑ (3.8)	1.69 ↓ (1.99)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.3%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Club León
21%

Draw
22.2%

Toluca
56.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

29%

24.4%

46.6%

Our Initial ML Estimation

27.6%

23.3%

48.9%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Club León has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-8%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Club León's form might have worsened.

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+10.2%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Toluca's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Club León than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Club León, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-7.9%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Toluca, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	11.1%	88.9%

Club León - Toluca Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.75 - León (2.12) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Toluca will win (8 of 9 users predict this - 88.89%).
Confidence interval (95%): 68.36% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Toluca will win (4 of 5 users predict this - 80%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 6 Selected Experts predict this event. León (votes: 1 - 16.7%). Toluca (votes: 4 - 66.7%). Tie (votes: 1 - 16.7%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
12. Jimenez O. (G) 2. Gauthier V. 15. Villa O. 25. Bellon P. 20. Echeverria R. 6. Beltran Cruz F. 16. Cortizo J. 28. Ramirez D. 10. Rodriguez J. (C) 29. Alvarado A. 18. Funes Mori R.	22. Garcia L. (G) 19. Simon S. 4. Bruno Mendez 6. Pereira F. 20. Gallardo J. 5. Romero F. 11. Helinho 10. Angulo J. 8. Castro N. 9. Vega A. (C) 26. Paulinho
Substitutes
14. Ayon E. 1. Blanco A. (G) 24. Cisneros C. 11. Diaz I. 27. Estrada A. 4. Fonseca N. 185. Mora C. 7. Moreno I. 19. Rodriguez E. 31. Santos S.	24. Arce F. 207. Arroyo J. 33. Arteaga V. 2. Barbosa D. 3. Briseno A. 7. Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 17. Isais M. 31. Morales R. 14. Ruiz M.
Coaches
Berizzo E.	Mohamed A.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 1)
5', 0 - 1, Angulo J. ⚽, Castro N. (A),
35', 1 - 1, Rodriguez J. (Pen),
42', Pereira F. 🟨,
42', Rodriguez J. 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 3)
48', 1 - 2, Paulinho ⚽, Vega A. (A),
53', Cortizo J. 🟨,
58', 1 - 3, Vega A. ⚽, Gallardo J. (A),
62', Angulo J. ↓, Ruiz M. ↑,
69', Villa O. ↓, Moreno I. ↑,
69', Cortizo J. ↓, Rodriguez E. ↑,
69', 2 - 3, Alvarado A. ⚽, Moreno I. (A),
72', Ramirez D. ↓, Diaz I. ↑,
75', Helinho ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
76', 2 - 4, Paulinho ⚽, Simon S. (A),
78', 🟨,
81', Simon S. ↓, Briseno A. ↑,
82', Paulinho ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
82', Vega A. ↓, Morales R. ↑,
84', Alvarado A. ↓, Fonseca N. ↑,

Preview

Enjoy a meeting between a mid-ranked team and one of the leaders (ranked 12 and 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Apertura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, León won 1.

León has had mixed results lately (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Toluca is on a winning streak and currently in very good shape (last 5 games: 5 wins).

Toluca may face physical challenges compared to their opponent, as they have played more matches in recent days.

In this match, Toluca is considered a favorite.

There will not play in León: Barreiro S. (Red Card)

There will not play in Toluca: Herrera H. (Red Card) Luan (Injury) del Villar E. (International duty)

There are questionable in León: Arcila D. (Injury) Blanco A. (Wrist Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, León won 7 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 6 matches, and goals 41:34. (average 2.1:1.7).

Including home matches between the teams, León won 6 matches, drew 2 matches, lost 3 matches, and goals 29:17. (average 2.6:1.5).

Last Results with these Odds

Toluca - the odds 1.99 are the expected chance of winning is 46.61%, but this team recently wins 56% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Club León
Mexican Liga MX
26.09.25	Juárez - Club León	2:0 ✺
23.09.25	Club León - Mazatlan	2:2 ✺
19.09.25	Tijuana - Club León	5:0 ✺
13.09.25	Tigres UANL - Club León	0:0 ✺
30.08.25	Club León - Querétaro	3:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 8 LTLTW
- Deportivo Toluca
Campeones Cup
01.10.25	Los Angeles Galaxy - Toluca	2:3 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
27.09.25	Toluca - Mazatlan	3:1 ✺
24.09.25	Toluca - Monterrey	6:2 ✺
20.09.25	Chivas Guadalajara - Toluca	0:3 ✺
13.09.25	Toluca - Puebla	3:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.4 WWWWW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
08.02.25	Club León - Toluca	3:3
02.11.24	Toluca - Club León	2:2
03.02.24	Toluca - Club León	4:1
21.10.23	Club León - Toluca	1:0
29.01.23	Toluca - Club León	0:0
26.07.22	Club León - Toluca	0:1
01.05.22	Club León - Toluca	4:4

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