Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Round 6

Date: 13 February 2026, Friday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Azteca 7, Azteca Deportes, FOX One, TUDN
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN


	Toluca		Tijuana

	1	X	2
	1.15	6.5	15	Watch
	1.17	6.9	14.5
	1.2	7.33	13.09
	1.24	6.4	10.91	Watch
	1.17	6	12
	1.21	6.87	15.1	Watch
	1.27	5.75	11
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.2 ↓ (1.45)	6.54 ↑ (4.47)	13.09 ↑ (6.83)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.25

The best margin for this event is 3.8%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
78.4%

Draw
14.4%

Tijuana
7.2%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

65.1%

21.1%

13.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

66.7%

20.6%

13.5%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+13.3%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.

Tijuana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Tijuana might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-11.7%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toluca that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tijuana than the current prediction. (+6.3%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Tijuana could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
83.3%	0%	16.7%

Toluca - Tijuana Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH -1.5, 1st Half - Toluca (3.87) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: Toluca will win (5 of 6 users predict this - 83.33%).
Confidence interval (95%): 53.51% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): Toluca will win (3 of 3 users predict this - 100%) 🥉 Bronze Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. Toluca (votes: 4 - 100%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez H. (G) 19. Simon S. 6. Pereira F. 4. Bruno Mendez 15. Perez P. 20. Gallardo J. 5. Romero F. 14. Ruiz M. (C) 29. Diaz J. 10. Angulo J. 26. Paulinho	2. Rodriguez A. (C) 3. Inzunza R. 12. Porozo J. 4. Bilbao U. 33. Ortiz Orozco P. N. 8. Tona I. 17. Arciga R. 22. Rivero I. 10. Castaneda K. 11. Preciado A. 9. El Ghezouani M.
Substitutes
35. Alvarez A. 24. Arce F. 2. Barbosa D. 3. Briseno A. 7. Cordova S. 25. del Villar E. 22. Garcia L. (G) 13. Luan 27. Rossi F. 23. Virgen O.	31. Abreu D. 32. Bagui Tobar D. O. 27. Blanco D. 6. Gomez A. 29. Hernandez J. (G) 25. Manzanarez O. 30. Martinez J. 187. Padilla G. 16. Vega A. 20. Zapata A.
Coaches
Mohamed A.	Abreu S.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
20', 1 - 0, Paulinho ⚽, Ruiz M. (A),
30', Simon S. 🟨,
31', Ortiz Orozco P. N. 🟨,
38', Arciga R. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Arciga R. ↓, Gomez A. ↑,
46', Rivero I. ↓, Blanco D. ↑,
62', Diaz J. ↓, Barbosa D. ↑,
66', Ruiz M. 🟨,
75', Angulo J. ↓, Cordova S. ↑,
76', Preciado A. ↓, Abreu D. ↑,
76', Ortiz Orozco P. N. ↓, Vega A. ↑,
83', Perez P. ↓, Luan ↑,
83', El Ghezouani M. ↓, Martinez J. ↑,
90+7', Blanco D. 🟨,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 6 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 10).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 3.

Toluca is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 2 wins).

Tijuana's form has been unstable in recent games (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

In this match, Toluca is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Toluca: Vega A. (Injury)

There will not play in Tijuana: Boya F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Toluca: Castro N. (Injury) Helinho (Muscle Injury)

There are questionable in Tijuana: Mora G. (Groin Injury)

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 10 matches, drew 3 matches, lost 7 matches, and goals 38:26. (average 1.9:1.3).

Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 8 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 2 matches, and goals 25:8. (average 2.5:0.8).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Toluca	11	6	2	3	25:15	10	20
8	Club Tijuana	10	4	3	3	15:14	1	15

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca
Mexican Liga MX
07.02.26	Toluca - Cruz Azul	1:1 ✺
30.01.26	Puebla - Toluca	0:0 ✺
17.01.26	Tigres UANL - Toluca	0:0 ✺
14.01.26	Toluca - Santos Laguna	3:1 ✺
10.01.26	Monterrey - Toluca	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 9.7 TTTWW
- Club Tijuana
Mexican Liga MX
06.02.26	Tijuana - Puebla	0:0 ✺
31.01.26	Monterrey - Tijuana	2:2 ✺
17.01.26	Tijuana - Atlético San Luis	1:1 ✺
14.01.26	Querétaro - Tijuana	1:2 ✺
09.01.26	Tijuana - Club América	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 12.8 TTTWT

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
22.10.25	Tijuana - Toluca	0:0
10.01.25	Tijuana - Toluca	2:4
14.09.24	Toluca - Tijuana	4:0
25.02.24	Toluca - Tijuana	2:0
15.09.23	Tijuana - Toluca	2:1
17.03.23	Tijuana - Toluca	3:3
07.08.22	Toluca - Tijuana	3:1

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