The best margin for this event is 4.2%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Toluca 75%
Draw 15.1%
Tijuana 10%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
65.7%
20%
14.4%
Our Initial ML Estimation
68.9%
18.1%
13%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+9.3%)
Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in Toluca's performance.
Tijuana has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.4%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-6.1%)
Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with Toluca that the model has picked up on.
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tijuana than the current prediction. (+3%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
100%
0%
0%
Toluca - Tijuana Predictions
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 4 - 100%).
Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
22. Garcia L. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 6. Pereira F. 25. del Villar E. 20. Gallardo J. 5. Romero F. 8. Castro N. 11. Helinho 10. Angulo J. 9. Vega A. (C) 26. Paulinho
2. Rodriguez A. (C) 3. Fernandez R. 12. Porozo J. 4. Bilbao U. 33. Ortiz Orozco P. N. 20. Zapata A. 17. Arciga R. 34. Boya F. 31. Padilla Y. 202. Gonzalez J. 13. Elias Manoel
Substitutes
24. Arce F. 4. Bruno Mendez 29. Diaz Price J. 17. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 35. Gutierrez E. 13. Luan 15. Perez P. 19. Simon S. 16. Vinas F.
19. Abreu D. 9. El Ghezouani M. 6. Gomez A. 11. Gonzalez F. 29. Hernandez J. (G) 18. Mejia A. 192. Olvera I. 7. Preciado A. 15. Rivero I. 8. Tona I.
Coaches
Mohamed A.
Abreu S.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (0 - 1)
38', 0 - 1, Elias Manoel ⚽, Padilla Y. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Angulo J. ↓, Vinas F. ↑,
46', Barbosa D. ↓, Garcia Caprizo B. A. ↑,
57', Elias Manoel ↓, El Ghezouani M. ↑,
57', Gonzalez J. ↓, Preciado A. ↑,
61', 1 - 1, Vinas F. ⚽, Helinho (A),
65', 2 - 1, Helinho ⚽, Castro N. (A),
67', Zapata A. ↓, Rivero I. ↑,
75', 2 - 2, Padilla Y. ⚽,
82', Padilla Y. ↓, Gonzalez F. ↑,
82', Arciga R. ↓, Gomez A. ↑,
83', Castro N. ↓, Gutierrez E. ↑,
83', Vega A. ↓, Diaz Price J. ↑,
Preview
This match features a clash between a top-table contender and a mid-table team (ranked 3rd in the Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals) and 10th).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 4.
In recent outings, Toluca has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Tijuana is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
The betting markets point to Toluca as the clear and undisputed favorite.
Confirmed absences for Toluca: Lopez I.
(Knee Injury)
Ruiz M.
(Knee Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for Tijuana: Mora G.
(Hip Injury).
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Toluca has recorded 10 wins, 3 draws, and 7 losses, with a goal aggregate of 35:25 (averaging 1.8:1.3 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Toluca against this opponent, the record stands at 8 wins, 0 draws, and 2 losses, with 22:7 goals (averaging 2.2:0.7 per game).
Mexico
South America
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Garcia L. (G) 
Pereira F. 
Romero F. 
Helinho 
Paulinho 
Porozo J. 
Bilbao U. 
Boya F. 
Arce F. 
El Ghezouani M. 
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