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Current Win Probability
Tigres UANL 31.9%
Draw 26.7%
Toluca 41.3%
Initial Probability
(when we started the analysis)
34.6%
26.7%
38.7%
Our Initial ML Estimation
35.4%
27.3%
37.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Tigres UANL has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.7%)
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.6%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Tigres UANL than the current prediction. (+3.5%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-3.5%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
0%
100%
Tigres UANL - Toluca Predictions
Users Predictions:
8 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 8 - 100%). Confidence interval (95%) for Toluca: 100% – 100%.
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
1. Guzman N. (G) 33. Guerrero R. 28. Joaquim 15. Franco A. 19. Lainez M. 8. Gorriaran F. (C) 5. Araujo C. 16. Lainez D. 11. Brunetta J. 9. Gomez E. 22. Martinez G.
22. Garcia L. (G) 17. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 4. Bruno Mendez 6. Pereira F. 20. Gallardo J. 5. Romero F. 35. Gutierrez E. 11. Helinho 8. Castro N. 9. Vega A. (C) 26. Paulinho
Substitutes
184. Aceves I. 17. Aguirre R. 14. Garza J. 77. Herrera O. 32. Lorona V. 21. Monreal R. 25. Rodriguez F. (G) 30. Sanchez Guevara D. A. 34. Simeone 6. Vigon J.
10. Angulo J. 24. Arce F. 2. Barbosa D. 25. del Villar E. 29. Diaz Price J. 1. Gonzalez H. (G) 13. Luan 15. Perez P. 19. Simon S. 16. Vinas F.
Coaches
Vucetich M.
Mohamed A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (2 - 1)
6', 1 - 0, Brunetta J. ⚽,
33', Vega A. 🟨,
37', 2 - 0, Martinez G. ⚽, Gomez E. (A),
42', 2 - 1, Paulinho ⚽, Garcia Caprizo B. A. (A),
43', Garcia Caprizo B. A. 🟨,
45+4', Mohamed A. 🟥,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Gutierrez E. ↓, Vinas F. ↑,
54', 2 - 2, Vinas F. ⚽, Helinho (A),
60', 3 - 2, Brunetta J. ⚽, Gorriaran F. (A),
69', Gomez E. ↓, Sanchez Guevara D. A. ↑,
69', Franco A. ↓, Lorona V. ↑,
70', Vega A. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
71', Garcia Caprizo B. A. ↓, Simon S. ↑,
71', Helinho ↓, Diaz Price J. ↑,
77', Martinez G. ↓, Aguirre R. ↑,
77', Lainez D. ↓, Herrera O. ↑,
89', Brunetta J. ↓, Garza J. ↑,
90', Castro N. ↓, Perez P. ↑,
90', Lorona V. 🟨,
90+3', Romero F. 🟨,
90+3', Pereira F. 🟨,
Preview
A struggling side attempts to pull off an upset against a high-flying opponent (ranked 15th and 1st in the Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Tigres won 2.
In recent outings, Tigres has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 1 win).
Toluca is in good shape currently (last 5 matches: 3 wins).
In this match, both teams have fairly balanced chances of victory.
Confirmed absences for Tigres: Angulo J.
(Knee Injury)
Flores M.
(Knee Injury)
Reyes F.
(Achilles Tendon Injury).
Confirmed absences for Toluca: Ruiz M.
(Knee Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for Tigres: Farfan M.
(Muscle Injury)
Rodriguez O.
(Knee Injury)
Romulo
(Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for Toluca: Gonzalez H.
(Injury)
Romero F.
(Injury).
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, Tigres has recorded 7 wins, 3 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal aggregate of 31:34 (averaging 1.6:1.7 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for Tigres against this opponent, the record stands at 6 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss, with 18:8 goals (averaging 1.8:0.8 per game).
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Guzman N. (G) 
Guerrero R. 
Joaquim 
Gorriaran F. (C) 
Paulinho 
Arce F. 
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