Match Info

Liga MX - Clausura - Round 14

Date: 12 April 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Nemesio Díez (Toluca)

Referee: Escobedo Gonzalez A. (Mex)

Where to Watch on TV:


Mexico	Canal 5, FOX One, TUDN, VIX+, ViX Premium
South-america	ViX Latin America
Usa	TUDN App, TUDN


	Toluca		Atlético San Luis

	1	X	2
	1.35	5	7	Watch
	1.39	4.95	6.9	Watch
	1.4	5.35	7.27
	1.39	5.24	6.98
	1.33	4.6	6
	1.37	4.95	7.11	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.37 ↑ (1.32)	5.02 ↓ (5.11)	6.88 ↓ (7.78)

The most likely Over/Under: 3.00

The best margin for this event is 3.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Toluca
67.9%

Draw
18.6%

Atlético San Luis
13.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

70%

18.1%

11.9%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.1%

16.3%

13.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Toluca has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.1%)

Atlético San Luis has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.6%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-4.8%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Atlético San Luis than the current prediction. (-0.3%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
66.7%	33.3%	0%

Toluca - Atlético San Luis Predictions

Users Predictions: 6 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 4 - 66.7%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 33.3%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

O/U 3.25 - under (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Expected Score (Market Odds): 2:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Gonzalez H. (G) 2. Barbosa D. 3. Briseno A. 13. Luan 17. Isais M. 24. Arce F. 33. Arteaga V. 15. Perez P. 7. Cordova S. 9. Vega A. (C) 27. Rossi F.	1. Sanchez A. (G) 2. Torres R. 6. Juanpe 31. Aguila E. 18. Cruz A. 5. Meraz R. 21. Macias O. 28. Medina J. 10. Salles-Lamonge S. 20. Flores L. 9. Joao Pedro Galvao (C)
Substitutes
10. Angulo J. 4. Bruno Mendez 8. Castro N. 25. del Villar E. 29. Diaz J. 250. Estrada J. 22. Garcia L. (G) 5. Romero F. 19. Simon S. 23. Virgen O.	4. Dominguez J. 17. Duarte A. 7. Galdames B. 30. Galindo B. 14. Garcia M. 34. Lajud G. (G) 15. Lucas Esteves 19. Munoz S. 3. Robson Bambu 11. Rodriguez D.
Coaches
Mohamed A.	Chabrand R.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
33', Luan 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
46', Arteaga V. ↓, Diaz J. ↑,
46', Luan ↓, del Villar E. ↑,
46', Barbosa D. ↓, Simon S. ↑,
58', Flores L. ↓, Duarte A. ↑,
63', Cordova S. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
72', 1 - 0, Rossi F. ⚽,
73', Meraz R. ↓, Garcia M. ↑,
73', Medina J. ↓, Rodriguez D. ↑,
73', Rossi F. ↓, Romero F. ↑,
83', Macias O. ↓, Munoz S. ↑,
90+3', Perez P. 🟨,
90+3', Cruz A. 🟨,
90+6', Simon S. 🟨,
90+7', 1 - 1, Joao Pedro Galvao (Penalty Awarded),

Preview

A leader and an outsider will face off in this match (ranked 4 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga MX (Clausura ~ Play Offs: Quarter~finals) and 15).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 5.

The recent form of both competitors has been shaky.

Atlético San Luis may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Toluca is the obvious favorite.

There will not play in Toluca: Ruiz M. (Knee Injury)

There are questionable in Toluca: Pereira F. (Injury)

There are questionable in Atlético San Luis: Lopez De Alba C. I. (Knee Injury)

In the last 12 head-to-head matches, Toluca won 9 matches, drew 1 match, lost 2 matches, and goals 24:10. (average 2:0.8).

Including home matches between the teams, Toluca won 5 matches, drew 0 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:7. (average 2.3:1.2).

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
2	Toluca	11	6	2	3	25:15	10	20
14	Atl. San Luis	10	3	3	4	14:18	-4	12

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Deportivo Toluca
CONCACAF Champions Cup
08.04.26	Toluca - Los Angeles Galaxy	4:2 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
04.04.26	Querétaro - Toluca	1:0 ✺
22.03.26	Pachuca - Toluca	1:1 ✺
CONCACAF Champions Cup
18.03.26	Toluca - San Diego	4:0 ✺
Mexican Liga MX
14.03.26	Toluca - Atlas	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 2.9 WLTWT
- Atlético San Luis
Mexican Liga MX
04.04.26	Monterrey - Atlético San Luis	1:2 ✺
21.03.26	Atlético San Luis - Club León	1:2 ✺
14.03.26	Atlético San Luis - Pachuca	1:1 ✺
07.03.26	Cruz Azul - Atlético San Luis	3:0 ✺
03.03.26	Atlético San Luis - Mazatlan	4:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13.8 WLTLW

Latest Head to Head

Mexican Liga MX
29.08.25	Atlético San Luis - Toluca	1:3
16.04.25	Atlético San Luis - Toluca	0:1
25.08.24	Toluca - Atlético San Luis	2:1
19.04.24	Atlético San Luis - Toluca	1:5
29.10.23	Toluca - Atlético San Luis	3:1
26.02.23	Toluca - Atlético San Luis	2:0
21.08.22	Atlético San Luis - Toluca	1:0

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