The best margin for this event is 2.5%, offered by
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Current Win Probability
Club León 24.4%
Draw 24.7%
Toluca 50.9%
Initial Probability (when we started the analysis)
27%
25.2%
47.8%
Our Initial ML Estimation
27.6%
24.7%
46.8%
Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:
Club León has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-2.6%)
Toluca has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+3.1%)
ML Model estimates a higher probability for Club León than the current prediction. (+3.2%)
ML Model estimates a lower probability for Toluca than the current prediction. (-4.1%)
Who will win by Users?
1
X
2
0%
40%
60%
Club León - Toluca Predictions
Users Predictions:
4 users predict this event. Toluca will win (votes: 2 - 50%). It will Tie (votes: 2 - 50%).
Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:
O/U 2.5 - over (1.46) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
BTTS - yes (1.47) (votes: 1 - 100%) .
Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:2
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Lineups
Starting Lineups
23. Garcia O. (G) 7. Moreno I. 14. Romana J. 3. Guevara J. 5. Vegas S. 13. Arcila D. 18. Guerra E. 20. Echeverria R. (C) 6. Beltran Cruz F. 11. Diaz I. 19. Alvarado A.
1. Gonzalez H. (G) 19. Simon S. 4. Bruno Mendez 6. Pereira F. 20. Gallardo J. (C) 5. Romero F. 35. Gutierrez E. 11. Helinho 29. Diaz Price J. 15. Perez P. 16. Vinas F.
Substitutes
25. Bellon P. 27. Cambindo D. 4. Colula B. 16. Cortizo J. 8. Dominguez Chonteco J. P. 203. Lara J. 181. Martinez I. (G) 185. Mora C. 26. Reyes S. 29. Rodriguez I.
10. Angulo J. 24. Arce F. 8. Castro N. 25. del Villar E. 17. Garcia Caprizo B. A. 22. Garcia L. (G) 7. Guzman V. 13. Luan 26. Paulinho 9. Vega A.
Coaches
Gandolfi J.
Mohamed A.
Key Events of the Match
1st Half (1 - 1)
9', Echeverria R. 🟨,
12', 1 - 0, Alvarado A. ⚽, Diaz I. (A),
27', Helinho 🟨,
31', Romero F. 🟨,
39', Alvarado A. 🟨,
44', 1 - 1, Vinas F. ⚽, Diaz Price J. (A),
2nd Half (0 - 0)
46', Echeverria R. ↓, Cambindo D. ↑,
46', Alvarado A. ↓, Rodriguez I. ↑,
62', Guerra E. ↓, Dominguez Chonteco J. P. ↑,
63', Helinho ↓, Vega A. ↑,
63', Beltran Cruz F. ↓, Cortizo J. ↑,
63', Perez P. ↓, Castro N. ↑,
75', Vinas F. ↓, Paulinho ↑,
75', Arcila D. ↓, Lara J. ↑,
86', Diaz Price J. ↓, Angulo J. ↑,
90+3', Lara J. 🟨,
90+3', Bruno Mendez 🟨,
Preview
One of the standout fixtures of the round, featuring two top-tier sides (ranked 5th in the Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals) and 4th in the Promotion - Liga MX (Apertura - Playoffs - Quarter - finals)).
In the last 5 head-to-head matches, León won 0.
In recent outings, León has recorded mixed results (last 5 matches: 2 wins).
Toluca is experiencing a dip in performance (last 5 matches: 0 wins).
Toluca may face physical fatigue compared to their opponent, having played more matches in recent days.
A closely fought contest is anticipated, with Toluca holding a narrow advantage.
Confirmed absences for Toluca: Lopez I.
(Knee Injury)
Ruiz M.
(Knee Injury).
Doubtful / questionable for León: Estrada A.
(Broken Leg)
Valadez L.
(Foot Injury).
In the last 20 head-to-head meetings, León has recorded 6 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, with a goal aggregate of 35:38 (averaging 1.8:1.9 goals per game).
Specifically in home fixtures for León against this opponent, the record stands at 5 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses, with 26:20 goals (averaging 2.4:1.8 per game).
Standings
Pl
W
D
L
Diff
Pts
5
Toluca
14
6
5
3
29:19
10
23
6
Club Leon
14
6
4
4
21:18
3
22
Outrights of Mexican Liga MX for now
Toluca: 11.68% Club Leon: 5.93%
Last Results with these Odds
Toluca - the odds 1.92 are the expected chance of winning is 47.83%, but this team recently wins 63% of matches with these odds.
Mexico
South America
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Garcia O. (G) 
Romana J. 
Vegas S. 
Diaz I. 
Simon S. 
Bruno Mendez 
Helinho 
Arce F. 
Paulinho 
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