Match Info

Liga de Primera - Round 12

Date: 17 May 2026, Sunday

Location: Estadio Monumental David Arellano (Santiago de Chile)

Referee: Riquelme M. (Chi)


	Colo-Colo		Ñublense

	1	X	2
	1.57	3.5	5.5	Watch
	1.66	3.7	5
	1.65	3.7	4.95	Watch
	1.69	3.81	5.65
	1.63	3.75	5.41	Watch
	1.62	3.4	4.8
	1.66	3.6	5.16	Watch
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.64 ↓ (1.67)	3.64 ↑ (3.47)	5.21 ↑ (5.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 3.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Colo-Colo
56.6%

Draw
25.5%

Ñublense
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

55.3%

26.6%

18.1%

Our Initial ML Estimation

58.3%

25.2%

17.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Colo-Colo has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+1.3%)

Ñublense has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-0.3%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Colo-Colo than the current prediction. (+1.7%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Ñublense than the current prediction. (-0.6%)

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
100%	0%	0%

Colo Colo - Ñublense Predictions

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 1 Selected Experts predict this event. Colo-Colo (votes: 1 - 100%).

Users Predictions: Colo-Colo will win (6 of 6 users predict this - 100%).
Confidence interval (95%): 100% – 100%.

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
25. Maureira G. (G) 2. Villagra J. 23. Vidal A. (C) 4. Sosa J. 6. Alarcon T. 28. Rojas J. 8. Madrid A. 5. Mendez V. 26. Ulloa D. 9. Correa J. 24. Hernandez L.	1. Perez N. (G) 5. Campos Mosqueira F. 4. Bosso Torres O. 18. Cespedes D. 16. Sanhueza D. 21. Reyes L. 10. Plaza M. 28. Rivera M. 14. Campusano J. 20. Jeraldino I. 29. Avalos G.
Substitutes
22. Aquino C. 30. Cuevas Y. 13. Fernandez M. 7. Marchant F. 20. Mendez J. 10. Pastran L. 50. Raipan F. 12. Villanueva E. (G) 21. Wiemberg E.	6. Calderon P. 8. Graciani G. 35. Mansilla C. 25. Munoz H. (G) 7. Ovelar F. 9. Rami F. 3. Salomon C. 19. Tapia I. 22. Valdes A.
Coaches
Ortiz F.	Ribera J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (2 - 1)
14', 1 - 0, Hernandez L. ⚽,
31', 2 - 0, Sosa J. ⚽, Alarcon T. (A),
36', 2 - 1, Sanhueza D. ⚽, Plaza M. (A),
2nd Half (4 - 1)
46', Jeraldino I. ↓, Rami F. ↑,
46', Cespedes D. ↓, Graciani G. ↑,
46', 3 - 1, Correa J. ⚽, Ulloa D. (A),
48', Hernandez L. 🟨,
50', 3 - 2, Vidal A. (Own goal),
57', 4 - 2, Vidal A. ⚽, Rojas J. (A),
62', 5 - 2, Correa J. (Penalty Awarded),
64', Correa J. ↓, Cuevas Y. ↑,
64', Plaza M. ↓, Ovelar F. ↑,
64', Sanhueza D. ↓, Calderon P. ↑,
74', Ulloa D. ↓, Pastran L. ↑,
74', Hernandez L. ↓, Wiemberg E. ↑,
76', 6 - 2, Pastran L. ⚽, Wiemberg E. (A),
78', Avalos G. ↓, Mansilla C. ↑,
79', Madrid A. ↓, Mendez J. ↑,
79', Vidal A. ↓, Aquino C. ↑,

Preview

Get ready for a battle between the top and the middle of the table (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Copa Libertadores (Group Stage: ) and 8).

In the last 5 head-to-head matches, Colo-Colo won 2.

Both teams have been playing unpredictably.

Ñublense may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

In this match, Colo-Colo is seen as the favorite.

In the last 20 head-to-head matches, Colo-Colo won 8 matches, drew 7 matches, lost 5 matches, and goals 24:22. (average 1.2:1.1).

Including home matches between the teams, Colo-Colo won 5 matches, drew 4 matches, lost 1 match, and goals 14:9. (average 1.4:0.9).

Outrights of Chilean Primera Division for now

Colo Colo: 81.49%

Standings

		Pl	W	D	L		Diff	Pts
1	Colo Colo	23	17	3	3	48:22	26	54
8	Nublense	23	8	8	7	28:31	-3	32

Last Results with these Odds

Colo-Colo - the odds 1.67 are the expected chance of winning is 55.3%, but this team recently wins 67% of matches with these odds.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Colo-Colo
Chilean Copa de la Liga
13.05.26	Coquimbo Unido - Colo-Colo	1:0 ✺
09.05.26	Colo-Colo - Deportes Concepción	3:1 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
03.05.26	Colo-Colo - Coquimbo Unido	3:1 ✺
26.04.26	Universidad de Concepción - Colo-Colo	1:2 ✺
19.04.26	Colo-Colo - Palestino	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.4 LWWWL
- Deportivo Ñublense
Chilean Copa de la Liga
10.05.26	Universidad Católica - Ñublense	1:1 ✺
02.05.26	Ñublense - Cobresal	2:0 ✺
Chilean Primera Division
25.04.26	Ñublense - OHiggins	0:2 ✺
19.04.26	Coquimbo Unido - Ñublense	1:1 ✺
12.04.26	Ñublense - Universidad de Chile	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 13 TWLTW

Latest Head to Head

Chilean Primera Division
01.11.25	Ñublense - Colo-Colo	0:1
19.05.25	Colo-Colo - Ñublense	2:2
29.08.24	Colo-Colo - Ñublense	2:1
06.04.24	Ñublense - Colo-Colo	3:0
25.07.23	Ñublense - Colo-Colo	0:0
13.02.23	Colo-Colo - Ñublense	1:0
06.11.22	Ñublense - Colo-Colo	1:1

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