Match Info

Liga 2 - Round 11

Date: 14 June 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Max Augustín (Iquitos)


	Comerciantes Belén		Moquegua

	1	X	2
	1.58	3.6	4.8
	1.55	3.55	5.15
	1.61	3.41	4.85
	1.6	3.54	5.22
	1.55	3.55	5.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.58 ↑ (1.49)	3.53 ↓ (3.8)	5.03 ↓ (5.94)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 9.9%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Comerciantes Belén
56.8%

Draw
25.4%

Moquegua
17.8%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

60.9%

23.8%

15.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

63.4%

24.8%

14.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comerciantes Belén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-4.1%)

Moquegua has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+2.5%)

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comerciantes Belén than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Comerciantes Belén, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Moquegua than the current prediction. (-3.1%)

Comerciantes Belén - Moquegua Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Silva L. (G) 22. Aburto B. 28. Chipao R. (C) 19. Dominguez J. 32. Flores A. 7. Hurtado C. 11. Mena Y. 31. Navarro J. 5. Pinedo D. 33. Valdeblanquez J. 16. Valverde M.	29. Figueroa R. (G) 10. Chavez N. 90. Collazos J. 16. Davila A. 30. Granda J. (C) 23. Jimenez J. 28. Lopez J. 22. Montenegro E. 24. Moreno K. 8. Sanchez D. 19. Santibanez S.
Substitutes
27. Ferreira P. 8. Flores L. 15. Gadea J. 13. Garcia A. (G) 10. Lemos M. 30. Tuesta J. 18. Vasquez J. 17. Vela P. 9. Zambrano J.	11. Centurion L. 18. Cuero J. 6. Jimenez J. 7. Lasso C. 1. Mayta Boza L. L. (G) 9. Osorio A. 14. Ramirez C. 4. Rivera B. 5. Vasquez J.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 0)
42', 🟨,
2nd Half (1 - 1)
51', Aburto B. 🟥,
56', Hurtado C. ↓, Zambrano J. ↑,
59', 🟨,
62', Lopez J. ↓, Lasso C. ↑,
63', Sanchez D. ↓, Rivera B. ↑,
63', Jimenez J. ↓, Ramirez C. ↑,
67', 1 - 0, Zambrano J. ⚽,
68', Dominguez J. ↓, Lemos M. ↑,
69', Mena Y. ↓, Flores L. ↑,
69', Granda J. ↓, Osorio A. ↑,
81', Moreno K. ↓, Cuero J. ↑,
82', Valverde M. ↓, Vela P. ↑,
83', Santibanez S. 🟨,
90+5', Rivera B. 🟨,
90+6', 1 - 1, ⚽,

Preview

The most interesting match of the day — two teams from the very top of the table will face off (ranked 1 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 2 (Promotion Group: ) and 2 in the zone Promotion ~ Liga 2 (Promotion Group: )).

Comerciantes is currently in amazing form (last 5 games: 3 wins).

Moquegua is in superb shape, having picked up a string of victories recently (last 5 games: 4 wins).

In this match, Comerciantes is the team to beat.

In the last 3 head-to-head matches, Comerciantes won 2 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 6:4. (average 2:1.3).

Including home match between the teams, Comerciantes won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 2:2.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- AD Comerciantes Belén
Peruvian Liga 2
08.06.25	Universidad San Martín - Comerciantes Belén	0:3 ✺
31.05.25	Cantolao - Comerciantes Belén	1:1 ✺
25.05.25	Comerciantes Belén - Santos	3:2 ✺
18.05.25	Comerciantes Belén - Bentín Tacna Heroica	2:0 ✺
11.05.25	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Belén	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7.5 WTWWL
- Deportivo Moquegua
Peruvian Liga 2
07.06.25	Moquegua - Cantolao	3:0 ✺
31.05.25	Santos - Moquegua	1:1 ✺
24.05.25	Moquegua - Bentín Tacna Heroica	2:1 ✺
18.05.25	Moquegua - Unión Comercio	1:0 ✺
10.05.25	Deportivo Coopsol - Moquegua	0:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.4 WTWWW

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
26.04.25	Moquegua - Comerciantes Belén	1:2
06.06.24	Moquegua - Comerciantes Belén	1:2
07.04.24	Comerciantes Belén - Moquegua	2:2

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