Match Info

Liga 2 - Promotion Group - Round 5

Date: 16 August 2025, Saturday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de San Marcos (Lima)


	San Marcos		Unión Comercio

	1	X	2
	2.35	3.1	2.65
	3.35	3.65	1.85
	4.59	3.95	1.57
	5.29	3.82	1.60	Watch
	3.19	3.34	2.06
	2.43	3.45	2.5
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.53 ↑ (2.38)	3.55 ↑ (3.3)	2.04 ↓ (2.6)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 7.6%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

San Marcos
26.8%

Draw
26.7%

Unión Comercio
46.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

37.9%

27.4%

34.7%

Our Initial ML Estimation

37.9%

27.4%

34.7%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Marcos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.1%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that San Marcos's form might have worsened.

Unión Comercio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+11.8%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Unión Comercio's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for San Marcos than the current prediction. (+11.1%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for San Marcos, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (-11.8%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Unión Comercio, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
0%	0%	100%

San Marcos - Unión Comercio Predictions

Users Predictions: 7 users predict this event. Unión Comercio will win (votes: 7 - 100%).

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): 2 Selected Experts predict this event. Unión Comercio (votes: 2 - 100%).

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

AH +0.25 - San Marcos (1.90) (votes: 2 - 100%) .

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 4 Selected Experts predict this event. San Marcos (votes: 2 - 50%). Unión Comercio (votes: 2 - 50%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
	31. Cordova M. (G)
	18. Ayala J.
	13. Gonzalez N.
	39. Guerrero G.
	28. Jimenez O.
	8. Marcos N.
	3. Mena J.
	4. Montoya C.
	6. Ojeda A.
	29. Perlaza V.
	26. Reategui M.
Substitutes
	9. Arrieta J.
	21. Cachique H. (G)
	33. Cuero J.
	19. Delgado G.
	. Mendoza Cornejo F. G.
	20. Morales G.
	7. Vargas C.
	. Villanueva C.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (0 - 2)
22', Raffo R. 🟨,
26', Raffo R. ↓, Salas J. ↑,
37', 0 - 1, Gonzalez N. (Pen),
45', Ramirez S. 🟨,
45+1', 0 - 2, Perlaza V. ⚽,
2nd Half (1 - 2)
48', Carrillo A. 🟨,
56', 1 - 2, Salas J. ⚽,
61', Ayala J. ↓, Vargas C. ↑,
61', Guerrero G. ↓, Morales G. ↑,
71', 1 - 3, Gonzalez N. ⚽,
76', 1 - 4, Gonzalez N. ⚽,
76', Ramirez S. ↓, Romero P. ↑,
80', Soto J. ↓, Reyes J. ↑,
82', Rodriguez R. ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
86', Mena J. ↓, Villanueva C. ↑,
86', Jimenez O. ↓, Arrieta J. ↑,
87', Montoya C. 🟨,

Preview

San Marcos is currently in poor form (last 5 games: 1 wins).

Unión Comercio is showing top-class performance now (in the last 5 games, wins – 3).

In this match, both teams are almost equally likely to win.

Recently, the teams have not faced each other.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC San Marcos
Peruvian Liga 2
09.08.25	Santos - San Marcos	3:0 ✺
01.08.25	San Marcos - Comerciantes Belén	1:0 ✺
20.07.25	ADA Jaén - San Marcos	0:0 ✺
05.07.25	San Marcos - Carlos A. Mannucci	0:1 ✺
20.06.25	Cajamarca - San Marcos	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 LWTLL
- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 2
10.08.25	Unión Comercio - ADA Jaén	2:0 ✺
26.07.25	Santos - Unión Comercio	0:2 ✺
20.07.25	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Belén	2:0 ✺
06.07.25	Unión Comercio - Moquegua	1:1 ✺
29.06.25	Comerciantes Belén - Unión Comercio	2:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 WWWTL

Upcoming Matches