Match Info

Liga 2 - Promotion Group - Round 3

Date: 1 August 2025, Friday

Location: Estadio Olimpico de San Marcos (Lima)


	San Marcos		Comerciantes Belén

	1	X	2
	1.73	3.25	4.2
	1.6	3.3	5.3
	1.58	3.22	6.12
	1.65	3.58	5.11
	1.61	3.44	5.33
Avarage Now (Initially)	1.63 ↓ (2.2)	3.36 ↑ (3.08)	5.21 ↑ (3.1)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 8.1%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

San Marcos
55.6%

Draw
27%

Comerciantes Belén
17.4%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

41.2%

29.5%

29.3%

Our Initial ML Estimation

43.1%

28.2%

28%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

San Marcos has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+14.4%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting increased confidence in San Marcos's performance.

Comerciantes Belén has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-11.9%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, and Comerciantes Belén might be facing challenges that affect their performance.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for San Marcos than the current prediction. (-12.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests that there may be underlying issues with San Marcos that the model has picked up on.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comerciantes Belén than the current prediction. (+10.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests that Comerciantes Belén could outperform expectations, possibly based on recent matchups or player stats.

Who will win by Users?

1	X	2
93.1%	3.4%	3.4%

San Marcos - Comerciantes Belén Predictions

Over/Under & Asian Handicap Predictions by Selected Experts:

DC - San Marcos (1.14) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH -1 - San Marcos (2.01) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

O/U 1.5 - over (votes: 1 - 100%) .

BTS - yes (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.5 - Comerciantes (2.21) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

AH +0.25, 1st Half - Comerciantes (1.97) (votes: 1 - 100%) .

Users Predictions: San Marcos will win (27 of 29 users predict this - 93.1%).
Confidence interval (95%): 83.88% – 100%.

Verified Performance Core (Selected Experts): San Marcos will win (17 of 17 users predict this - 100%) 🥇 Gold Tip.

Overall Expert Consensus (including all markets): 21 Selected Experts predict this event. San Marcos (votes: 19 - 90.5%). Comerciantes (votes: 2 - 9.5%).

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:0

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Stein A. (G) 29. Aragon F. 24. Castro F. 26. Garcia A. 22. Moyano D. 28. Paz L. 8. Peral P. (C) 25. Raffo R. 2. Reyes J. 7. Soto J. 16. Ventura F.	1. Silva L. (G) 3. Catashunga J. 19. Dominguez J. 32. Flores A. 7. Hurtado C. 10. Lemos M. 31. Navarro J. 5. Pinedo D. 33. Valdeblanquez J. 16. Valverde M. 9. Zambrano J.
Substitutes
18. Carrillo A. 15. Gadea A. 21. Quincho J. (G) 20. Ramirez S. 35. Rivera L. 13. Rodriguez L. 19. Rodriguez R. 27. Romero P.	22. Aburto B. 6. Arevalo F. 13. Garcia A. (G) 26. Guevara R. 30. Tuesta J. 20. Ulloa J. 17. Vela P.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', 1 - 0, Paz L. ⚽,
27', Hurtado C. ↓, Aburto B. ↑,
38', Moyano D. 🟨,
2nd Half (0 - 0)
54', Navarro J. 🟨,
58', 🟨,
63', Soto J. ↓, Rodriguez L. ↑,
68', Pinedo D. ↓, Ulloa J. ↑,
70', 🟨,
70', 🟨,
70', 🟨,
71', Paz L. ↓, Carrillo A. ↑,

Preview

San Marcos is going through a rough patch (last 5 games: 0 wins).

Comerciantes has been playing with ups and downs recently (in the last 5 games, wins – 1).

San Marcos may have a physical advantage due to more rest days in recent times.

San Marcos might have a minor edge in this game.

In the last 2 head-to-head matches, San Marcos won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 1 match, and goals 1:6. (average 0.5:3).

Including home match between the teams, San Marcos won 0 matches, drew 1 match, lost 0 matches, and goals 1:1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- FC San Marcos
Peruvian Liga 2
20.07.25	ADA Jaén - San Marcos	0:0 ✺
05.07.25	San Marcos - Carlos A. Mannucci	0:1 ✺
20.06.25	Cajamarca - San Marcos	1:0 ✺
13.06.25	San Marcos - ADA Jaén	0:1 ✺
07.06.25	Universidad César Vallejo - San Marcos	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 5.1 TLLLT
- AD Comerciantes Belén
Peruvian Liga 2
26.07.25	Comerciantes Belén - ADA Jaén	1:1 ✺
20.07.25	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Belén	2:0 ✺
06.07.25	Bentín Tacna Heroica - Comerciantes Belén	2:1 ✺
29.06.25	Comerciantes Belén - Unión Comercio	2:1 ✺
21.06.25	Deportivo Coopsol - Comerciantes Belén	0:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 1.7 TLLWT

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
17.09.24	San Marcos - Comerciantes Belén	1:1
23.08.24	Comerciantes Belén - San Marcos	5:0

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