Match Info

PERU: Liga 1 - Apertura - Round 14

Date: 4 May 2024, Saturday

Location: Estadio Juan Maldonado Gamarra (Cutervo)

Referee: Haro Sueldo D. M. (Per)


	Comerciantes Unidos		Unión Comercio

	1	X	2
	2.1	3.2	3.6	Watch
	2.05	3.1	3.2
	2.15	3.3	3.4	Watch
	2.02	3.27	3.2
	2.05	3.25	3.3
	2.09	3.28	3.36	Watch
	2.15	3.2	3.3
Avarage Now (Initially)	2.09 ↑ (1.7)	3.23 ↓ (3.74)	3.34 ↓ (4.52)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.25

The best margin for this event is 6.2%, offered by

#Advertisement. For Live Stream GEO restrictions apply. Funded account required. GamblingTherapy.org. 18+

Current Win Probability

Comerciantes Unidos
44%

Draw
28.5%

Unión Comercio
27.5%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

54.6%

24.9%

20.5%

Our Initial ML Estimation

47%

21.4%

23.8%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Comerciantes Unidos has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-10.6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Comerciantes Unidos's form might have worsened.

Unión Comercio has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+7%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Unión Comercio's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Comerciantes Unidos than the current prediction. (+3%)

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Unión Comercio than the current prediction. (-3.7%)

Comerciantes Unidos - Unión Comercio Predictions

Expected Score (Market Odds): 1:1

#ad

Lineups

Starting Lineups
28. Garcia L. (G) 27. Barrios K. 16. Bosmediano J. 4. Noriega E. 13. Caro D. 25. Paucar E. 20. Parodi J. 18. Pinto O. 23. Magallanes P. 14. Palacio D. 9. Sen M.	1. Barrios I. (G) 15. Jimenez O. 3. Paredes T. 20. Ramirez C. 27. Trujillo L. 5. Sanchez K. 7. Carranza M. 31. Serra P. 17. Vargas D. 10. Hernan Perez 14. Regalado I.
Substitutes
21. Campos D. (G) 11. Gonzales S. 6. Paico K. 29. Saavedra C. 10. Santamaria K. 26. Toledo J. 49. Valladares G. (G)	13. Angulo Grueso B. A. 12. Diaz W. (G) 2. Salas J. 8. Sandoval V. 26. Tandazo J. 19. Uribe C. 16. Villamarin R.
Coaches
Silvestri C.	Garcia M.

Key Events of the Match

1st Half (1 - 0)
7', Trujillo L. 🟥,
10', Parodi J. 🟨,
39', Sanchez K. 🟨,
40', 1 - 0, Sen M. ⚽, Caro D. (A),
2nd Half (2 - 1)
46', Barrios K. ↓, Toledo J. ↑,
54', Palacio D. 🟨,
62', Parodi J. ↓, Santamaria K. ↑,
64', 2 - 0, Magallanes P. (Pen),
65', Vargas D. ↓, Villamarin R. ↑,
65', Sanchez K. ↓, Uribe C. ↑,
71', Regalado I. ↓, Angulo Grueso B. A. ↑,
72', Paucar E. ↓, Paico K. ↑,
73', Jimenez O. 🟨,
79', Ramirez C. 🟨,
81', 3 - 0, Bosmediano J. ⚽,
83', Hernan Perez ↓, Tandazo J. ↑,
90', Silvestri C. 🟨,
90', Loayza A. 🟨,
90+3', Sen M. ↓, Gonzales S. ↑,
90+3', Pinto O. ↓, Saavedra C. ↑,
90+11', 3 - 1, Ramirez C. (Pen),

Preview

Team outsider and a mid-table team will meet during this match (ranked 8 and 18).

Last 5 head-to-head matches Comerciantes Unidos won 0.

Both teams are in bad shape now.

Unión Comercio could have advantage in physics - more days for rest in last days.

In this match Comerciantes Unidos is a favorite.

Last 11 head-to-head matches Comerciantes Unidos won 1 matches, drawn 4 matches, lost 6 matches and goals 11-23.

Including matches at home between the teams Comerciantes Unidos won 1 matches, drawn 3 matches, lost 1 matches and goals 7-6.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Comerciantes Unidos
Peruvian Liga 1
28.04.24	Universitario de Deportes - Comerciantes Unidos	6:0 ✺
23.04.24	Comerciantes Unidos - Alianza Atlético	0:0 ✺
14.04.24	Universidad César Vallejo - Comerciantes Unidos	3:1 ✺
08.04.24	Comerciantes Unidos - Cusco	0:1 ✺
28.03.24	Deportivo Garcilaso - Comerciantes Unidos	1:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 11.3 LTLLW
- Unión Comercio
Peruvian Liga 1
27.04.24	Sport Boys - Unión Comercio	0:0 ✺
19.04.24	Unión Comercio - Universitario de Deportes	1:2 ✺
13.04.24	Alianza Atlético - Unión Comercio	2:0 ✺
06.04.24	Unión Comercio - Universidad César Vallejo	2:2 ✺
29.03.24	Cusco - Unión Comercio	1:0 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 6.9 TLLTL

Latest Head to Head

Peruvian Liga 2
18.09.22	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Unidos	4:0
18.06.22	Comerciantes Unidos - Unión Comercio	2:3
20.08.21	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Unidos	4:0
03.06.21	Comerciantes Unidos - Unión Comercio	1:1
05.11.20	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Unidos	1:1
Peruvian Liga 1
27.10.18	Comerciantes Unidos - Unión Comercio	2:2
02.08.18	Unión Comercio - Comerciantes Unidos	2:0

Upcoming Matches