Match Info

BRAZIL: CATARINENSE - ROUND 11

Date: 2 March 2024, Saturday


	Concórdia		Avaí

	1	X	2
				Watch
	3.1	3	2.15
	3.3	3.1	2.2
	2.96	2.99	2.09
	3.29	3.07	2.2
	3.27	3.04	2.26
	3.25	3.05	2.15
Avarage Now (Initially)	3.2 ↑ (2.6)	3.04 ↑ (3)	2.18 ↓ (2.5)

The most likely Over/Under: 2.00

The best margin for this event is 7.7%, offered by

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Current Win Probability

Concórdia
28.4%

Draw
29.8%

Avaí
41.7%

Initial Probability

(when we started the analysis)

34.4%

29.8%

35.8%

Our Initial ML Estimation

35%

30.3%

35.2%

Analysis of Changes in Winning Probabilities:

Concórdia has seen a decrease in its chances compared to the initial analysis. (-6%)

Note: This is a significant drop in prediction, indicating that Concórdia's form might have worsened.

Avaí has improved its chances compared to the initial analysis. (+5.9%)

Note: This is a significant improvement in prediction, suggesting Avaí's recent form is better than expected.

ML Model estimates a higher probability for Concórdia than the current prediction. (+6.6%)

Note: The ML model's higher estimate suggests a strong performance forecast for Concórdia, possibly due to key factors that the model accounted for.

ML Model estimates a lower probability for Avaí than the current prediction. (-6.5%)

Note: The ML model's lower estimate suggests a potential downturn for Avaí, possibly due to injuries or other negative factors.

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Lineups

Starting Lineups
1. Jean Carlos (G) 18. Emerson Souza 9. Gustavo Barbosa 22. Jean Patrick 11. Marquinhos 5. Matheus Baseggio 2. Miguel Perin 4. Perema 6. Tete 16. Vinicius Nucci 3. William Alves	1. Igor Bohn (G) 5. Alan 9. Gabriel Poveda 93. Judson 2. Kevin 11. Mauricio Garcez 27. Pedrinho 21. Pedro Castro 23. Rafael Gava 72. Thales Oleques 13. Tiago Pagnussat
Substitutes
14. Caio Mores 13. Felipe Camargo 15. Japa 21. Keslley 19. Lenger 20. Luiz Meneses 10. Nadson 12. Neneka (G) 23. Pedro Alves 17. Victor Diniz 7. Wendel Barros 8. Ze Vitor	78. Andrey 31. Cesar Augusto (G) 30. Gabriel Dias 20. Gaspar 29. Jean Lucas 19. Joao Paulo 95. Jonathan Costa 4. Roberto Rosa 83. Wanderson 6. Willian Maranhao

Preview

An outsider and one of the leaders will play in this match (ranked 10 and 3 in the zone Promotion ~ Catarinense (Play Offs: Quarter~finals)).

Avaí is Qualified for Catarinense (Play Offs Quarter~finals)

Last 5 head-to-head matches Concórdia won 2.

Concórdia is in bad shape now (in the last 5 games wins - 1).

Recent matches Avaí is playing changeable (in the last 5 games wins - 2).

Avaí could have problems with physics compare with it opponent - last days they played more matches than their opponents.

In this match the chances to achieve triumph for both teams are almost equal.

Last 6 head-to-head matches Concórdia won 2 matches, drawn 1 matches, lost 3 matches and goals 4-5.

Including matches at home between the teams Concórdia won 1 matches, drawn 0 matches, lost 0 matches and goals 2-1.

Form

✺ - easy match; ✺ - difficult match;

- Concórdia AC
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
25.02.24	Hercílio Luz - Concórdia	3:0 ✺
21.02.24	Joinville - Concórdia	1:2 ✺
17.02.24	Concórdia - Náutico Marcílio Dias	0:1 ✺
10.02.24	Barra Santa Catarina - Concórdia	3:0 ✺
07.02.24	Concórdia - Brusque	1:1 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 10 LWLLT
- Avaí
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
28.02.24	Avaí - Barra Santa Catarina	1:0 ✺
24.02.24	Avaí - Brusque	0:1 ✺
17.02.24	Figueirense - Avaí	1:2 ✺
12.02.24	Avaí - Criciúma	2:3 ✺
07.02.24	Joinville - Avaí	2:2 ✺
Form Coefficient (based on results and difficulties of last matches) - 7 WLWLT

Latest Head to Head

Brazilian Copa Santa Catarina
15.11.23	Concórdia - Avaí	2:1
07.11.23	Avaí - Concórdia	0:1
03.09.23	Avaí - Concórdia	1:0
Brazilian Campeonato Catarinense
25.02.23	Avaí - Concórdia	1:0
19.02.22	Avaí - Concórdia	2:1
11.04.21	Avaí - Concórdia	0:0

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